TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$286,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,393 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 479 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e0…024ebacked No37c102,468$38,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,461.6318950.3%95 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Yes64c50,111$32,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,071.1113829%40 W · 98 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes65c37,392$24,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,284.4679639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x834e…8015backed No22c15,385$3,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,012.933855.3%21 W · 17 L+6.4wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+102.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x94e4…2943backed Yes64c10,934$6,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,998.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4167…2427backed No38c10,184$3,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,341.281435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd889…cf51backed Yes65c6,663$4,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,326.64366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-9.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked No36c4,701$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,008.468145.7%37 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes64c4,398$2,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,814.7924062.5%150 W · 90 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No47c3,897$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.9537841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Yes62c3,820$2,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,383.544742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes67c3,675$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450.239561.3%242 W · 153 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes62c3,544$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,187.4529643.6%129 W · 167 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed No49c3,209$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.173953.8%21 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+38.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked No38c3,021$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.9140254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Yes56c3,005$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.84560%27 W · 18 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+97.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Yes61c3,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,83014659.6%87 W · 59 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes60c2,853$1,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.863961.5%24 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd3…9d22backed Yes62c2,769$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes65c2,769$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.68633.7%29 W · 57 L-14.7wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes78c2,583$2,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,008.394766%31 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,18068026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed Yes76c1,856$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.3311657.8%67 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7563…7654backed Yes56c1,764$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes62c1,614$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.647651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bdc…3a4ebacked No38c1,600$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.964963.3%31 W · 18 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Yes59c1,457$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.9115337.3%57 W · 96 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed No37c1,351$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.355141.2%21 W · 30 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8239…ddd7backed Yes7c1,263$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929027.8%25 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed No39c1,231$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.495550.9%28 W · 27 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes62c1,106$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.722142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No39c1,100$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.3117945.8%82 W · 97 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a0…f57dbacked Yes63c1,068$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.231030%3 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes62c1,039$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64418740.6%76 W · 111 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78f1…42a4backed Yes74c1,001$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.06450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0583…054dbacked Yes61c999.58$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6102544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+43.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe59d…fe58backed Yes61c978.1$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.6470%0 W · 7 L-4.3wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x85cc…2b10backed Yes63c951.68$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.82520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-74.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe77f…4374backed Yes51c937.74$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.312330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid+379.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No35c930.16$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.622744.5%101 W · 126 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No29c853.5$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.266031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Yes69c827.92$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.729751.9%154 W · 143 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffc…19adbacked Yes61c819.67$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick68cpaid-39.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd152…2221backed No37c817.46$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes10c759.97$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7619743.7%86 W · 111 L+32.4wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+142.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x97f2…a87fbacked Yes62c730$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.3540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-36.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed No37c677$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.513762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb88d…291abacked Yes65c673.95$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.072138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.23per pick61cpaid-38.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x420b…c128backed No29c652.35$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.594926.5%13 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+12.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes57c625.98$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.8129044.8%130 W · 160 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6d…f360backed No24c613.38$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.152128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26a1…dfc9backed Yes19c609.28$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.86757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick30cpaid+182.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked No37c600$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3788230.5%25 W · 57 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9542…4295backed No49c550$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.131752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa768…0ad1backed Yes64c536.64$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.45862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd556…d4c9backed Yes72c520$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95cd…32d0backed No38c499.98$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.995554.5%30 W · 25 L+10.6wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+60.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x65fe…cef1backed Yes69c492.86$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Yes64c491.99$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.8829238.4%112 W · 180 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8d…6bdfbacked Yes61c491.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf66d…f36fbacked Yes60c485.49$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.381723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe286…7735backed Yes62c483.87$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c3…269bbacked Yes64c468.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004362.8%27 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No37c432$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.2846660.5%282 W · 184 L+30.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed No46c417.5$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.52744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc9e…d9f9backed No37c395.23$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.167967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x620e…0775backed Yes76c394.88$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No37c387.96$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.0890751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…3312backed Yes64c357.95$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.09728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-53.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes48c343.08$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec5c…ce46backed Yes75c335.5$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25013336.1%48 W · 85 L-12.7wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3dc0…4da8backed Yes61c325.56$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b2…841cbacked No48c320$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1652725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked No25c309.47$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.11050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe591…d8a5backed Yes58c302.74$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.59520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-73.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9bad…74a7backed No38c300$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1863751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes64c282.81$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18115347.7%73 W · 80 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x722c…515fbacked No37c279.73$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.233243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes64c250$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16024630.5%75 W · 171 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4292…9cd8backed No41c245.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.11936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Yes65c230.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503828.9%11 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes61c230.33$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1409348.4%45 W · 48 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6ca…09a4backed Yes62c225.81$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402142.9%9 W · 12 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-37.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7f93…ddbfbacked Yes35c215.18$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf1a…3953backed Yes64c205.28$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed No39c200$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12310341.7%43 W · 60 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16e…5220backed Yes64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x193c…5b89backed No37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x710c…ee60backed Yes57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142128.6%6 W · 15 L-5.9wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-58.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed Yes63c200$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.332560%15 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fe…025cbacked Yes77c193.19$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.762759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No46c190$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.63253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacdc…9461backed Yes64c187.5$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6834…2bd2backed No41c170.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.732955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x163e…d18cbacked Yes57c167.7$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+316.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…0050backed Yes15c166.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253729.7%11 W · 26 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+91.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb737…f72ebacked Yes62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaa5…2f7dbacked Yes62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4114…b9acbacked No37c160.93$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.3911527%31 W · 84 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0402…51d9backed Yes63c157.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.