TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,480
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,536

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,480 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9542…4295backed Yes15c11,521$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,793.051752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52e4…1b25backed Yes19c8,038$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,506.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No53c5,351$2,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,810.6479639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked No79c4,752$3,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,763.2440254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked No80c3,298$2,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,628.6529643.6%129 W · 167 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes19c3,193$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,572.0568026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Yes19c3,095$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,495.245740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes15c2,618$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,217.5418433.7%62 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e0…68a8backed Yes18c2,368$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.854339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22f8…6748backed Yes20c2,315$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid+63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95cd…32d0backed Yes18c2,247$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.125554.5%30 W · 25 L+10.6wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+60.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes17c2,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6601442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b2…841cbacked No8c1,925$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.382725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ce…6d96backed Yes20c1,666$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.082240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1875…eb5ebacked Yes19c1,607$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.395429.6%16 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf87…69b2backed Yes16c1,526$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.053020%6 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd556…d4c9backed Yes45c1,262$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.47425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes15c1,253$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.0536954.5%201 W · 168 L+50.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+91.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa645…0be6backed Yes16c1,244$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.657230.6%22 W · 50 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c64…d9e5backed Yes19c1,217$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.392751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes20c1,135$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.441030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe803…8efbbacked Yes19c1,101$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.111323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7432…794bbacked Yes18c1,082$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.3411937%44 W · 75 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes8c1,035$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.27825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes18c1,000$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82044939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77f…4374backed Yes1c1,000$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9902330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid+379.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes13c1,000$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb680…c893backed Yes20c1,000$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8003613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f85…d745backed Yes18c980.58$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.585644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5efc…9b2abacked Yes21c971.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.111741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Yes11c961.06$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.047116.9%12 W · 59 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-15.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e3…83d2backed Yes19c842.11$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.113119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes2c674.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.891717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+301.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f47…0043backed Yes17c592.29$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.62045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b75…787ebacked Yes17c588.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b00…e6edbacked Yes18c560$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+462.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7a…f6dbbacked Yes18c555.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.564438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes18c542.84$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.1311342.5%48 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1521…cab4backed Yes19c525$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x990b…c30ebacked Yes18c513.36$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd38…09a8backed Yes8c500$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.11742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick10cpaid+323.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0be6…3b7fbacked Yes18c490.72$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.3911139.6%44 W · 67 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4aa…d7c8backed Yes21c482.43$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.121154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+74.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c423.5$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.8466031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13f4…1c68backed Yes71c373.76$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.19742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+96.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed Yes9c372.02$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.545959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45cf…d389backed Yes8c365.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.28633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+176.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd5…a3ccbacked Yes18c347.72$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.137534.7%26 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes17c336.33$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.3332737.6%123 W · 204 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Yes18c301.41$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.1125339.1%99 W · 154 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fc7…e3efbacked Yes46c285.34$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.34837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes16c281.02$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.065048%24 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x420b…c128backed Yes9c255.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.564926.5%13 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+12.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bc…8c15backed No80c238.75$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1911450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd91a…96b7backed Yes21c238.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.4944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58a2…bb98backed Yes21c238.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+415.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe12e…c40bbacked Yes21c238.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.1633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes19c221.98$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.8117143.3%74 W · 97 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No59c201.37$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1337841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16042755%235 W · 192 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed No80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601040%4 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-46.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9777…2a8dbacked Yes12c200$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec5c…ce46backed Yes19c184.21$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.2113336.1%48 W · 85 L-12.7wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e30…ef89backed No80c180.36$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.291136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f0…90f4backed Yes20c178.67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.072737%10 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes18c174.68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.2422744.5%101 W · 126 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c6e…4644backed Yes18c166.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed4…70f0backed Yes80c160.56$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.831275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5a…0fb8backed Yes9c152$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+982.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x834e…8015backed Yes23c150$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.53855.3%21 W · 17 L+6.4wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+102.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes19c131.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.583534.3%12 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes19c131.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.585337.7%20 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb701…7cf6backed Yes19c131.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5822932.3%74 W · 155 L-0.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc92c…b909backed Yes18c126.33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.591747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+89.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…d18cbacked Yes8c125$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+316.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1577…3612backed Yes21c120.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.24633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…b756backed Yes17c116.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.693857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa382…b743backed Yes19c114.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+112.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dc…375abacked Yes18c110$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.27934.2%27 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc52…a021backed Yes15c103.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.564744.7%21 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a15…eac3backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+92.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55e0…1c6ebacked Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…711bbacked Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x87f7…94e7backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804438.6%17 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805042%21 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5965…3628backed Yes21c95.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.241457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79eb…9df6backed Yes21c95.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.241060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+55.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26a1…dfc9backed Yes12c84.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.19757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick30cpaid+182.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f3b…e349backed Yes21c83.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.83825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97eb…b91cbacked Yes18c83.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.331464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+54.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes21c81.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3332736.4%119 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3621…4f82backed Yes19c78.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.953138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed1f…3462backed Yes20c75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606354%34 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6e…9d3dbacked Yes17c71.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes17c70$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.91618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x847f…08a5backed Yes18c70$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4825%2 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+58.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x808f…87b2backed Yes19c66.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+100.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2936…07f5backed Yes19c62.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3110932.1%35 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes17c62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4611915.1%18 W · 101 L-10.4wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c17…9b2dbacked Yes17c60$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+118%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.