TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Capitals vs. Stars

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Starsof Capitals, Stars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,416 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8996…fbcebacked Stars67c9,709$6,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,183.795743.9%25 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a2…6af8backed Stars49c7,828$3,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,992.031662.5%10 W · 6 L+4.6wins+0.29per pick34cpaid+85.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Capitals33c6,383$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080.4292848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Capitals0c5,290$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.971915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Capitals52c5,225$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.8131334.8%109 W · 204 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Capitals35c2,298$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.5535545.4%161 W · 194 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Capitals45c2,222$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.7313655.1%75 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed Stars61c2,059$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.3914949.7%74 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc70…ad54backed Stars58c1,367$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.331580%12 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+51%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21fa…42b9backed Capitals42c1,367$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Stars57c1,183$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.931,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Capitals42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.7585148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x163e…d18cbacked Capitals43c966.85$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.634542.2%19 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b3d…f0c9backed Stars60c840$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+49.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Stars56c799.94$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.9825340.7%103 W · 150 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc89b…451fbacked Stars60c665.33$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.131241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Stars60c607.07$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.3519150.8%97 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Stars58c500.06$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5254349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2317…c891backed Capitals61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511e…c7b5backed Capitals41c496.14$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.42450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0715…b17bbacked Stars59c496.14$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.421478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick55cpaid+49.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x98ec…7cd3backed Capitals41c437.02$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.181822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-65%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x480f…0905backed Capitals43c417.25$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.42616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Capitals44c386.36$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17022246.8%104 W · 118 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe973…7005backed Stars58c359.74$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.494146.3%19 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-24.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Stars56c331.49$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8631849.4%157 W · 161 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Stars60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12013241.7%55 W · 77 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+70.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56fd…7ae6backed Capitals63c270$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.15750.9%29 W · 28 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab95…61a1backed Stars59c254.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.157248.6%35 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1efa…6a86backed Capitals42c238.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.41per pick58cpaid-74%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x56b8…2ee0backed Stars59c212.02$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.931258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff5…54dabacked Capitals41c212.02$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e09…1c3fbacked Capitals61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1229153.8%49 W · 42 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Capitals42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Capitals42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Capitals44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8881846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Stars60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8050049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e2…0187backed Capitals42c199.85$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9313953.2%74 W · 65 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec0…a0eabacked Stars60c198.67$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.672763%17 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…c206backed Capitals25c181.6$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.38633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ad…f186backed Stars60c180$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7213562.2%84 W · 51 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c3e…2d9ebacked Stars61c159.82$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf8…1fa4backed Stars57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.52360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c91…0505backed Stars58c149.17$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.657650%38 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Stars58c132.61$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1584051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f0a…e4eabacked Capitals41c131.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544158.5%24 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Capitals44c126$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4424457.4%140 W · 104 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd57…c7e2backed Stars59c118.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.641533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11d7…7a4bbacked Stars61c114.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.831181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick56cpaid+47.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05ff…b701backed Capitals44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x26a1…dfc9backed Capitals45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Stars46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.11,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed Stars59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4116554.5%90 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2088…9c55backed Stars61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393865.8%25 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed Capitals39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3929847%140 W · 158 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8167…3051backed Capitals43c99.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.992532%8 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-38.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd753…3783backed Capitals44c97.73$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5614…4893backed Stars57c97.72$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Stars58c94.03$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.491,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed Capitals41c89.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9919347.2%91 W · 102 L-14.9wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ae2…1aecbacked Stars57c88.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6b…9d18backed Stars57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59c1…e2f9backed Capitals44c87.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4202…9611backed Capitals52c87.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456959.4%41 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4d4…b04dbacked Capitals40c87.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…5831backed Capitals44c86.36$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Stars59c85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.854742.6%20 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9006…ff0abacked Stars57c84.21$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.21742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaca…85a1backed Capitals44c81.82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked Capitals25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0835…c0abbacked Stars59c79.72$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.698248.8%40 W · 42 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf2b…62d2backed Stars62c71.12$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.02580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3504…04d7backed Capitals39c68.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.89450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba49…a4a1backed Capitals41c64.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.457338.4%28 W · 45 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c30…6429backed Stars57c63.68$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c1e…535bbacked Capitals44c63.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Stars58c62.07$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8572444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea9d…29babacked Stars60c60.88$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b5…5083backed Stars60c59.65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2c…21f8backed Stars57c57.83$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.87475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9e…d9f9backed Stars58c56.87$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8911445.6%52 W · 62 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6012…a1fbbacked Capitals40c55.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1250%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fb1…34c7backed Stars61c55.35$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fa…23f4backed Stars58c55.03$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.013363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b92…8bb4backed Capitals35c55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick54cpaid-55.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe411…9367backed Stars57c53.44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.983860.5%23 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb61…30b5backed Stars60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73c1…16dbbacked Stars58c49.88$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54bb…7be8backed Capitals43c49.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Capitals42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033145%149 W · 182 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16a8…b903backed Capitals43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+52%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefad…ce1bbacked Stars60c46.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.48683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+63%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b7b…bd3cbacked Capitals43c46.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Capitals43c46.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024945.8%114 W · 135 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f0…3563backed Capitals44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bc7…45b8backed Stars38c45.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.181346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Capitals39c44.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4623144.6%103 W · 128 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Capitals41c44.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11,07954.3%586 W · 493 L+4.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a2…866dbacked Stars57c43.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.599260.9%56 W · 36 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2d3…ffe9backed Stars58c43.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.11361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+30.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.