Premier League · resolved market
Will Southampton vs. Brentford end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x479a1581a10479308d21418080675b336f578c2d9f0173f4a89a7868ea5bc37e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe7a…83f6backed Yes | 27c | 10,073$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f15…2ffdbacked No | 73c | 10,033$7,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,708.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5134…b00cbacked No | 73c | 10,027$7,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,707.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…db1dbacked Yes | 27c | 10,007$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,701.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…054dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,938$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,590$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.4 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 9c | 1,380$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed No | 73c | 499.95$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…9d39backed Yes | 28c | 392.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 33c | 324$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 68c | 264.13$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 74c | 231.66$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab2…b58abacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bf…7851backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a07…4769backed Yes | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 26c | 110.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…bbd8backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 25c | 99.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 72c | 82.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…375abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6b…4d16backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 263 | 47.5%125 W · 138 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 46.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 835 | 59.3%495 W · 340 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…7005backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd1…c8ebbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Southampton vs. Brentford end in a draw?this page
- Will Brentford win on 2025-01-04?Yes won
- Will Southampton win on 2025-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.