Premier League · resolved market
Will Southampton win on 2025-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45358fbb69c758be2e6b5a2154e7c49d9f20203844bac0f88aa5e70cb2ade744
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 22c | 5,366$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.31 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…efeebacked Yes | 31c | 1,970$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72a…582dbacked No | 72c | 696.04$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 71c | 685.24$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.72 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b8…df3cbacked Yes | 29c | 685.24$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 74c | 675$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 72c | 657.45$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.09 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 29c | 596.05$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked No | 72c | 500$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.75 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Yes | 29c | 344.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 30c | 336.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…69b2backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 34c | 299.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 69c | 274.91$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 69c | 262$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 34c | 222$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 69c | 210$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5679…d458backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed No | 71c | 154.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 69c | 148.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…b28abacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe480…a9a4backed No | 72c | 140.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…36bebacked No | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed No | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…720abacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 28c | 86.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef08…6cdfbacked No | 71c | 78.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e92…07a6backed No | 71c | 63.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 31c | 62.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Yes | 30c | 56.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…db37backed Yes | 31c | 49.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089d…f416backed No | 74c | 42.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…ede8backed Yes | 35c | 42.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…e48fbacked Yes | 35c | 41.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8763…744ebacked Yes | 35c | 37.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…58acbacked No | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e5…a540backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce3…c9e7backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…c88cbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…ffbfbacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…60efbacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…097dbacked No | 71c | 20.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 209 | 58.9%123 W · 86 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…7005backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…3701backed No | 66c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…38fbbacked No | 66c | 15.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Southampton win on 2025-01-04?this page
- Will Brentford win on 2025-01-04?Yes won
- Will Southampton vs. Brentford end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.