College Football · resolved market
Duke vs. Ole Miss
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cc1c78d8236d6760eca4285474a01d0824c5b08bebaaec6b60997ca494c0a5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ole Missof Duke, Ole Miss
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Duke | 0c | 7,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Duke | 13c | 4,600$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.5 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Duke | 13c | 4,001$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.08 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Duke | 3c | 2,377$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…36ddbacked Duke | 14c | 2,298$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Duke | 2c | 2,133$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…c5b2backed Duke | 9c | 2,016$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked Duke | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Duke | 20c | 1,967$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…cd68backed Duke | 2c | 1,620$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…600cbacked Duke | 14c | 1,457$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Duke | 7c | 1,185$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Duke | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…e8ccbacked Duke | 11c | 1,148$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.74 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Duke | 14c | 1,029$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.02 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Duke | 6c | 1,015$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Duke | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Duke | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…1057backed Duke | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Duke | 6c | 999.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Duke | 11c | 961.27$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Duke | 2c | 918.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Duke | 6c | 783.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Duke | 14c | 749.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Duke | 11c | 694$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Duke | 12c | 583.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b1…1daabacked Duke | 14c | 542.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Duke | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a2…8a37backed Duke | 7c | 414.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Duke | 6c | 403.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…d15ebacked Duke | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…1e41backed Duke | 12c | 325$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…e52cbacked Duke | 7c | 322.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Duke | 9c | 304.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Duke | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…b03fbacked Ole Miss | 78c | 300$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…7005backed Duke | 13c | 279$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Duke | 20c | 255.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25de…794bbacked Duke | 14c | 248.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65dc…0b11backed Duke | 14c | 210.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…382bbacked Duke | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Duke | 7c | 190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Duke | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…fd11backed Duke | 14c | 140.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Duke | 11c | 132$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…4d07backed Duke | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…aed7backed Duke | 14c | 100.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Duke | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.