TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Sharks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sharksof Lightning, Sharks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,509

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,210 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41ba…dfbbbacked Lightning73c5,482$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Sharks27c2,500$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,824.7431849.4%157 W · 161 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4711…61b3backed Lightning6c1,900$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Sharks57c1,476$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.7831334.8%109 W · 204 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Sharks62c1,289$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.8120345.3%92 W · 111 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Lightning68c1,260$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.921,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Lightning1c1,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b5…7340backed Lightning1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101031%1 W · 102 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e0…d485backed Lightning50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning72c999.88$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.911,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Sharks28c905.63$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.051,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lightning38c792.93$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.81,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e3…83d2backed Sharks28c714.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.274647.8%22 W · 24 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+32.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Lightning22c687.5$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14812955.8%72 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Sharks27c641.46$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.2635545.4%161 W · 194 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e09…1c3fbacked Sharks27c604.94$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.69153.8%49 W · 42 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Sharks35c541.37$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.8913655.1%75 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb64b…b90fbacked Sharks28c527.44$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.44837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Lightning24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020540.5%83 W · 122 L+0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0304…dcc7backed Sharks27c500$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3652347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Sharks28c499.96$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.9754349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Lightning54c496.15$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.9214151.8%73 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Sharks79c490$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.910739.3%42 W · 65 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Sharks65c467.47$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.568345.8%38 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Sharks70c454.37$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.391334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc558…e8ccbacked Lightning72c448.56$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.9613361.7%82 W · 51 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Lightning5c443.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.27450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Sharks28c427.08$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.4984051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6274…f988backed Lightning49c400$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1941553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56fd…7ae6backed Lightning73c370$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.15750.9%29 W · 28 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9a07…7768backed Sharks28c357.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.142142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd259…42a0backed Sharks75c349.61$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.51966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Sharks27c340.27$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.441851.4%215 W · 203 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Lightning68c324.9$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22024945.8%114 W · 135 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed Lightning72c299.98$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9911951.3%61 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Sharks28c255$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.672444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Lightning45c227.13$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10219438.1%74 W · 120 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Lightning47c215$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.97532%24 W · 51 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Lightning40c182.85$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.316953.6%37 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed Lightning61c170.91$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1059547.4%45 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46ed…3921backed Sharks62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.294100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Lightning54c156.52$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5228842%121 W · 167 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed Sharks27c150$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.57660.5%46 W · 30 L+9.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x11f6…cce7backed Lightning73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed Sharks55c136.13$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2614949.7%74 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x870c…b309backed Lightning72c136.11$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9ad…f186backed Lightning74c136.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013562.2%84 W · 51 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked Lightning41c125.42$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.422065%13 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb337…5589backed Sharks27c123.79$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0448654.1%263 W · 223 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Sharks46c123.24$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7413846.4%64 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…ec57backed Sharks77c120$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.31471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Sharks57c115.4$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.533,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd88…1ca6backed Lightning45c112$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.946465.6%42 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6994…fc1fbacked Lightning53c105.78$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.06742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4e2…0187backed Lightning72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7213953.2%74 W · 65 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Sharks28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7281846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7399…1e41backed Sharks28c88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.361861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+52.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b97…bd26backed Sharks62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.652050%10 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec0…a0eabacked Sharks62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.652763%17 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb72b…2f6cbacked Lightning72c80$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.63336.4%12 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-34.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6163…8507backed Lightning72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019852.5%104 W · 94 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Sharks28c66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5224546.1%113 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8748…e4d8backed Sharks29c65.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Sharks35c62.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8985464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6981…8ac5backed Sharks71c62.62$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1610659.4%63 W · 43 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c3…b759backed Sharks29c62.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.07520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32d9…5d7cbacked Sharks29c58.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Sharks28c57.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1462944%277 W · 352 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b8…c972backed Sharks28c53.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.57944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe989…785abacked Sharks29c51.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+141.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4121…ecb5backed Lightning71c50.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e65…a9cebacked Lightning71c49.3$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc52…a021backed Sharks68c44.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2510267.6%69 W · 33 L+11.0wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Lightning72c44.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0439757.2%227 W · 170 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1694…a4c2backed Lightning71c42.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a15…eac3backed Lightning72c41.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307659.2%45 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x055f…bfc8backed Lightning73c41.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57fc…5eafbacked Sharks28c40.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.13742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2474…4957backed Lightning73c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.26168.9%42 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb315…2375backed Lightning71c39.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Lightning57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205750.9%29 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2995…6fc6backed Lightning39c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa167…4108backed Lightning73c34.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf81e…ab79backed Lightning72c34.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252060%12 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc96b…c8acbacked Lightning73c34.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.41per pick63cpaid-65.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe3c5…fc5ebacked Lightning73c34.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Sharks52c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8492848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3e…e54dbacked Lightning72c32.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b49…8a4dbacked Lightning70c32.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cf2…3520backed Lightning73c31.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3330%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb715…8300backed Lightning41c31.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d6…4143backed Lightning72c30.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.27560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd06…627dbacked Lightning71c29.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.96742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76e8…3f83backed Lightning71c29.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5608…eb9dbacked Lightning72c29.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc627…e954backed Lightning71c28.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x472f…edabbacked Lightning72c28.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.49633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c3d…359cbacked Lightning71c28.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1426…f8b9backed Lightning71c28.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…a706backed Lightning72c27.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.