TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump renames Persian Gulf to "Arabian Gulf" in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,001
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,001 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c29…d822backed Yes4c4,312$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.858632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No44c3,459$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.583923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3e…bd4abacked Yes60c2,815$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No48c2,460$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.7411936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b9…5e0cbacked Yes56c2,333$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6136…5dcdbacked Yes60c2,052$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes50c1,800$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.998127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes2c1,557$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.667723.4%18 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes38c1,509$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.295843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd182…8921backed Yes40c1,507$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.371910.5%2 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-86.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c1,506$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.623989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes3c1,396$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.485825.9%15 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes56c1,283$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.456053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes46c1,237$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.118745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked Yes9c1,107$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.67943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes10c1,035$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.888226.8%22 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No41c965$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.59535.8%34 W · 61 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No47c806.54$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.8710834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No60c777.18$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.9418033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes43c728.02$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.5114742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No49c722.45$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.6516854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No62c718.38$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.7710347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da1…980bbacked No67c706.61$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.611838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c639.63$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.8456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xab08…8924backed Yes50c611$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf0c…af7abacked No60c604.33$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.66475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes63c569.99$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.993935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes36c568.03$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1437740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed Yes60c559.06$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.215644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed No50c552$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.195135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+41.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes56c522$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.271533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed No79c507.63$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.63580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+61.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91e9…62c3backed No40c498.22$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+149.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x991a…d81abacked No63c440.29$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.24933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes49c419.99$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.32737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b92…046ebacked No55c381.56$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes42c362.84$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1617850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09f7…a365backed No49c352$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0cee…f962backed No37c336.4$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.41080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+57.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2038…6161backed No53c335$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.7757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No63c322.76$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7719435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes43c322.54$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bd3…8c6fbacked No42c318.97$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.97650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+141.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes64c314.23$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20117452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1141741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes53c299.98$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9910324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes68c294.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+106.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe221…234dbacked No34c290.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes45c287.28$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.991,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No77c287.27$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2716544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No61c281.29$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.119557.9%55 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf088…4942backed Yes60c268.25$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No32c250$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.91931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…6bd3backed No61c246.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes27c238.64$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2930319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes39c237.03$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7be2…c5efbacked No46c207.84$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.341844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.35343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ccc…cd45backed Yes74c200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd31…938fbacked No34c190$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No53c173.32$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.453231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No61c173.07$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.55442.6%23 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No53c168.46$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3924035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No26c164.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.122347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7211031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked No51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.53959%23 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes37c150$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5519638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes21c149.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.58847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes21c147$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.771,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No59c145$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4514048.6%68 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes56c131$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8922641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253f…edf9backed No39c129.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes68c123.25$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.343540%14 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No62c117.63$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.557675%57 W · 19 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+18.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked No47c116.34$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.665639.3%22 W · 34 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe147…2883backed Yes28c115.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes61c110$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.632626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f4…5e6abacked No55c108.82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.62540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes43c107.29$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.997441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b86…53d7backed No60c103.96$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.962458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…d0dcbacked No36c103.16$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3512643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4511646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No46c99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7910244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No28c96.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.215332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d2b…f9fcbacked No38c93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ff1…9511backed No38c92.55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.58520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55a9…2c79backed No42c91.55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.17837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No52c91$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.682737%10 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f79…fa7fbacked No55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edb…4cdbbacked Yes61c89.18$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1028…3a85backed No34c88.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.241136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes34c87.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308433.3%28 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked No34c82.93$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.063228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e70…9047backed No57c82.33$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe06c…7bb1backed No37c80.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+169.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes61c80$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.425241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86d1…84cbbacked Yes38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac63…7afcbacked No56c79.55$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.