Us Politics · resolved market
US forces in Iran before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb827b3971f2448be6159cbfc0f1bde0a41e9e5a9066950a0c99912a0bf9cac8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $399,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $369,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 19,105$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.2 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 9c | 10,604$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.14 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…f052backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 2c | 9,470$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.18 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…a113backed Yes | 11c | 9,091$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…ff9bbacked Yes | 9c | 7,525$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,704$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.8 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…4daabacked Yes | 4c | 5,660$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 3c | 5,406$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d41…271abacked Yes | 6c | 4,824$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…145bbacked Yes | 11c | 4,668$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7be…c327backed Yes | 11c | 4,240$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…bd5cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,808$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +1,036.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 6c | 3,723$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.78 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,611$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…109fbacked Yes | 17c | 3,389$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,269$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 2c | 2,936$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa10c…4a2cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,727$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 9c | 2,514$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.22 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…203cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 2,384$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.02 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7be…6c0dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,291$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 14c | 2,219$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.69 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…9a6cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,144$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 11c | 2,127$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…35cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,066$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe96…b734backed Yes | 10c | 2,060$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9a…68ecbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 4c | 1,907$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 1,849$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.73 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5f…453abacked Yes | 11c | 1,761$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa116…6f3bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,716$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…9eabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,702$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…b244backed Yes | 1c | 1,693$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…b317backed Yes | 3c | 1,571$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…6ffdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,465$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1d…5de1backed Yes | 9c | 1,396$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c6…b4f2backed Yes | 15c | 1,350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2d…b371backed Yes | 1c | 1,243$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed Yes | 15c | 1,234$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…25a8backed Yes | 20c | 1,205$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abc…00fdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…163abacked Yes | 13c | 1,194$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac4…4bedbacked Yes | 2c | 1,118$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…2784backed Yes | 5c | 1,115$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…ed02backed Yes | 11c | 1,108$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…49e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,042$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4f…bb30backed Yes | 2c | 1,028$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d2…000abacked Yes | 5c | 1,024$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…3a85backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d4…0065backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…cf3fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb967…f4eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec10…e4f9backed Yes | 4c | 969.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…745cbacked Yes | 11c | 948.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 6c | 948$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…e0c6backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…23fabacked Yes | 1c | 882.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 821.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…e15bbacked Yes | 13c | 764.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…cd45backed Yes | 14c | 722.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…2253backed Yes | 10c | 715.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f5…1d9bbacked Yes | 6c | 713.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…a930backed Yes | 12c | 663$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…c533backed Yes | 15c | 661.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…d709backed Yes | 2c | 654.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…3152backed Yes | 11c | 636.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…e5c0backed Yes | 16c | 634.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e1…1728backed Yes | 10c | 611.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 595$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…b954backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a9…ec57backed Yes | 5c | 546.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…d992backed Yes | 13c | 530.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 6c | 524.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…07f5backed Yes | 7c | 522.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 2c | 508$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…e1fcbacked Yes | 12c | 505.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…9194backed Yes | 11c | 483.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes | 9c | 468.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf3…1dd0backed Yes | 11c | 467.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…5af6backed Yes | 11c | 465.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cab…13dfbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…6003backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…533abacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 9c | 450$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…10f7backed Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 11c | 430.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…f587backed Yes | 13c | 409.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…7eacbacked Yes | 12c | 406.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +285.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…0952backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d8…d52bbacked Yes | 8c | 399.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.