TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US forces in Iran before August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$399,597
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$369,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,597 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c19,105$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.255618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes9c10,604$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.148111.1%9 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19be…f052backed Yes8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes2c9,470$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.18195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-93.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc6…a113backed Yes11c9,091$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked Yes9c7,525$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes6c5,704$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.83225%8 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3877…4daabacked Yes4c5,660$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.6580%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed Yes3c5,406$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.46812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-81.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c5,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d41…271abacked Yes6c4,824$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe329…145bbacked Yes11c4,668$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.28333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7be…c327backed Yes11c4,240$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+142.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…bd5cbacked Yes6c3,808$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+1,036.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes6c3,723$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.78254%1 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid+54.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c3,611$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.283989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bef…109fbacked Yes17c3,389$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c3,269$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.662400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x961a…50c7backed Yes2c2,936$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+89.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa10c…4a2cbacked Yes11c2,727$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes9c2,514$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.2214241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa999…203cbacked Yes4c2,500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes6c2,384$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0218322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7be…6c0dbacked Yes1c2,291$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes14c2,219$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.693923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…9a6cbacked Yes11c2,144$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes11c2,127$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x279c…35cfbacked Yes2c2,066$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe96…b734backed Yes10c2,060$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a9a…68ecbacked Yes8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes4c1,907$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8511428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c1,849$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.7344111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6a5f…453abacked Yes11c1,761$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa116…6f3bbacked Yes9c1,716$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b3…9eabbacked Yes1c1,702$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa915…b244backed Yes1c1,693$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.85110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes12c1,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2816…b317backed Yes3c1,571$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes9c1,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13512619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7927…6ffdbacked Yes5c1,465$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec1d…5de1backed Yes9c1,396$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c6…b4f2backed Yes15c1,350$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2d…b371backed Yes1c1,243$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1680%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8545…ada5backed Yes15c1,234$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+110.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee45…25a8backed Yes20c1,205$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4abc…00fdbacked Yes13c1,200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7673…163abacked Yes13c1,194$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ac4…4bedbacked Yes2c1,118$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee1b…2784backed Yes5c1,115$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x350e…ed02backed Yes11c1,108$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a26…49e9backed Yes2c1,042$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4f…bb30backed Yes2c1,028$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d2…000abacked Yes5c1,024$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1028…3a85backed Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d4…0065backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd013…cf3fbacked Yes1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb967…f4eebacked Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes7c999.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7032626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec10…e4f9backed Yes4c969.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-59%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd05f…745cbacked Yes11c948.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes6c948$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4718516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe10f…e0c6backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1bd…23fabacked Yes1c882.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c821.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.641,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0849…e15bbacked Yes13c764.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ccc…cd45backed Yes14c722.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…2253backed Yes10c715.2$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f5…1d9bbacked Yes6c713.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.651030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…a930backed Yes12c663$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cdb…c533backed Yes15c661.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x298b…d709backed Yes2c654.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c1…3152backed Yes11c636.36$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x795d…e5c0backed Yes16c634.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-45%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e1…1728backed Yes10c611.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes11c595$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4330319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf488…b954backed Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53a9…ec57backed Yes5c546.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3971…d992backed Yes13c530.77$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes6c524.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9811646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0ff…07f5backed Yes7c522.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes2c508$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c95…e1fcbacked Yes12c505.35$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.66633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1088…9194backed Yes11c483.27$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes9c468.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-78.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcaf3…1dd0backed Yes11c467.89$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea7…5af6backed Yes11c465.66$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x599d…6521backed Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cab…13dfbacked Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x258e…6003backed Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7feb…533abacked Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b87…a487backed Yes9c450$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2844…10f7backed Yes9c444.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed Yes11c430.05$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.434526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7943…f587backed Yes13c409.6$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab15…7eacbacked Yes12c406.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.99540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+285.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3335…0952backed Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d8…d52bbacked Yes8c399.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.