TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,262,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,210,789

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,262,269 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 345 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x174e…b3c0backed Yes13c125,326$16,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,868.871471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x63e9…e1a1backed No48c66,383$31,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,608.971266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes33c57,524$19,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,094.981963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0540…98ebbacked No59c56,907$33,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,543.652138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No29c39,173$11,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,789.154047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes33c37,743$12,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,320.163312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-69.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229a…54cebacked Yes37c37,445$13,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,667.96333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+63.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x028f…f5abbacked Yes56c36,729$20,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,709.161330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9841…5189backed Yes31c32,772$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x611e…10ddbacked Yes43c23,531$10,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,077.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked No45c19,458$8,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,727.1817229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf195…a7c1backed Yes68c15,676$10,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,606.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x236f…eec4backed Yes66c13,300$8,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,761.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e00…14ecbacked Yes79c11,558$9,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,127.59366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No60c9,796$5,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,886.0187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f1b…d367backed Yes45c9,072$4,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,095.971850%9 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes57c8,627$4,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9451428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f32…1532backed Yes18c8,465$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes69c7,371$5,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,059.355034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No68c7,369$5,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,358.0737745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed21…d879backed Yes61c7,135$4,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,375.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x883e…81a8backed Yes62c7,032$4,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,380.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa43d…df8ebacked Yes61c6,844$4,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,207.55475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed No62c6,571$4,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,515.0463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No56c6,287$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,747.2855032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4851…1e94backed No70c6,182$4,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.552548%12 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefdb…7358backed Yes54c4,234$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278.852231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc383…83f9backed Yes80c4,051$3,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,231.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5836…8f10backed Yes45c3,527$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc797…1895backed Yes61c3,434$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.4366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e03…8388backed Yes42c2,859$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca5f…90dcbacked Yes79c2,848$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x717a…7476backed Yes38c2,803$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes33c2,580$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.0664812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes42c2,540$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb9…df42backed Yes60c2,429$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76bc…205bbacked No53c2,426$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.673351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8be4…58d9backed Yes55c2,190$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61c0…21febacked No54c2,160$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.36955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes68c2,039$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3801258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2002470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309427.7%26 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd99c…463cbacked Yes50c1,982$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No55c1,964$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.83925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-49.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a81…3f74backed Yes36c1,958$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7474…4ebabacked No45c1,750$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf68…a25ebacked Yes41c1,743$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.221154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+37.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes31c1,732$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes40c1,601$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.557020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes27c1,500$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410120%0 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed No50c1,488$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.272045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe362…7430backed Yes11c1,479$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.711225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1d63backed No69c1,406$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.347229.2%21 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes44c1,400$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-61%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd561…9b7bbacked Yes27c1,378$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3723452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x138d…4bc0backed Yes65c1,350$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8801283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+60.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf662…3e84backed Yes24c1,275$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf940…3239backed Yes43c1,224$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52650%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked Yes60c1,201$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7204242.9%18 W · 24 L-8.8wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x79f3…d803backed Yes31c1,200$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed Yes53c1,132$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.96450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07f…4000backed Yes36c1,100$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b8d…fb67backed Yes24c1,100$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+126.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bec…56d0backed Yes73c1,098$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed No59c1,098$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.33580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+48.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c7…d0e8backed Yes31c1,031$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.54812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-81.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6111…c02fbacked No36c985.99$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c5a…3d19backed Yes29c982.76$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes42c981.67$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.747540%30 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a6…a41cbacked Yes31c980.9$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa73…adabbacked Yes79c935.86$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe34f…d79cbacked Yes34c931.93$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.9911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-85.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes54c921.77$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f48…c6adbacked No69c913.32$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes17c835.19$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.94180%0 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x277f…ed32backed Yes29c814$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.91553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c0…40b1backed Yes77c813.86$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…3332backed Yes63c793.65$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes38c775.07$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.31520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3b…014fbacked Yes58c766.09$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da5…9c11backed Yes19c766.02$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.484042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c5…3533backed Yes70c750$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.234656.5%26 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid+11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes27c750$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4060…4ed3backed Yes80c749.71$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c6…0ea8backed Yes30c742.33$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.71330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x807f…bad6backed Yes73c734.36$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.0840%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes18c729.99$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.41931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9829…d58fbacked Yes41c723.59$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+134.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa365…d26ebacked Yes65c714.65$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad92…88e2backed No70c708.47$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5320…f3b2backed Yes40c700$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ae…bf54backed Yes46c700$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Yes73c684$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes34c670$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.9825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c666.31$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.5711533%38 W · 77 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ca7…31a2backed No23c666$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.821060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ae2…d63ebacked Yes72c658.83$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e6…b9c6backed No55c631.66$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+86.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes36c630$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.93164.5%20 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…fe83backed Yes31c622.84$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.