Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ee6ab7612226e196528f7f61127c82ba1883dd1f4799cbfb86d4e8a4b430a91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,262,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,210,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,262,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 345 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x174e…b3c0backed Yes | 13c | 125,326$16,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,868.87 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63e9…e1a1backed No | 48c | 66,383$31,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,608.97 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes | 33c | 57,524$19,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,094.98 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked No | 59c | 56,907$33,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,543.65 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed No | 29c | 39,173$11,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,789.15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 33c | 37,743$12,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,320.16 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229a…54cebacked Yes | 37c | 37,445$13,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,667.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028f…f5abbacked Yes | 56c | 36,729$20,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,709.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9841…5189backed Yes | 31c | 32,772$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611e…10ddbacked Yes | 43c | 23,531$10,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,077.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 45c | 19,458$8,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,727.18 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf195…a7c1backed Yes | 68c | 15,676$10,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,606.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236f…eec4backed Yes | 66c | 13,300$8,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,761.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…14ecbacked Yes | 79c | 11,558$9,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,127.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 60c | 9,796$5,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,886.01 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1b…d367backed Yes | 45c | 9,072$4,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,095.97 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 57c | 8,627$4,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,945 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed Yes | 18c | 8,465$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 69c | 7,371$5,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,059.35 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 68c | 7,369$5,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,358.07 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…d879backed Yes | 61c | 7,135$4,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,375.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883e…81a8backed Yes | 62c | 7,032$4,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,380.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…df8ebacked Yes | 61c | 6,844$4,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,207.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 62c | 6,571$4,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,515.04 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 56c | 6,287$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747.28 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…1e94backed No | 70c | 6,182$4,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.55 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed Yes | 54c | 4,234$2,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,278.85 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…83f9backed Yes | 80c | 4,051$3,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,231.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5836…8f10backed Yes | 45c | 3,527$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc797…1895backed Yes | 61c | 3,434$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e03…8388backed Yes | 42c | 2,859$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…90dcbacked Yes | 79c | 2,848$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717a…7476backed Yes | 38c | 2,803$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 2,580$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.06 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 42c | 2,540$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb9…df42backed Yes | 60c | 2,429$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…205bbacked No | 53c | 2,426$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.67 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…58d9backed Yes | 55c | 2,190$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c0…21febacked No | 54c | 2,160$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 68c | 2,039$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…463cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,982$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 55c | 1,964$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.8 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a81…3f74backed Yes | 36c | 1,958$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…4ebabacked No | 45c | 1,750$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…a25ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,743$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 31c | 1,732$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 40c | 1,601$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.55 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 27c | 1,500$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 50c | 1,488$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 11c | 1,479$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed No | 69c | 1,406$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.34 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 44c | 1,400$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9b7bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,378$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…4bc0backed Yes | 65c | 1,350$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…3e84backed Yes | 24c | 1,275$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…3239backed Yes | 43c | 1,224$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked Yes | 60c | 1,201$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Yes | 31c | 1,200$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…4000backed Yes | 36c | 1,100$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…fb67backed Yes | 24c | 1,100$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 73c | 1,098$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed No | 59c | 1,098$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…d0e8backed Yes | 31c | 1,031$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…c02fbacked No | 36c | 985.99$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5a…3d19backed Yes | 29c | 982.76$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 42c | 981.67$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.74 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a6…a41cbacked Yes | 31c | 980.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa73…adabbacked Yes | 79c | 935.86$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34f…d79cbacked Yes | 34c | 931.93$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 54c | 921.77$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…c6adbacked No | 69c | 913.32$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 17c | 835.19$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.94 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed Yes | 29c | 814$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…40b1backed Yes | 77c | 813.86$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…3332backed Yes | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 38c | 775.07$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…014fbacked Yes | 58c | 766.09$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…9c11backed Yes | 19c | 766.02$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 70c | 750$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.23 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 27c | 750$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…4ed3backed Yes | 80c | 749.71$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…0ea8backed Yes | 30c | 742.33$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…bad6backed Yes | 73c | 734.36$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 18c | 729.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9829…d58fbacked Yes | 41c | 723.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…d26ebacked Yes | 65c | 714.65$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad92…88e2backed No | 70c | 708.47$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 40c | 700$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Yes | 46c | 700$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1331…3d82backed Yes | 73c | 684$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 34c | 670$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 666.31$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.57 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…31a2backed No | 23c | 666$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae2…d63ebacked Yes | 72c | 658.83$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…b9c6backed No | 55c | 631.66$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 36c | 630$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.9 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…fe83backed Yes | 31c | 622.84$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1?this page
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on July 1?No won
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1?Yes won
- Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1?No won
- Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.