Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x411e11e12fe113d074f7729922ba61b1b7ce2f7950fd69b2a313e9f5b9a38c13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $361,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $361,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x883e…81a8backed Yes | 3c | 49,715$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 4c | 28,668$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.54 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd99d…a5a3backed Yes | 0c | 23,933$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 4c | 16,845$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.01 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef91…97b1backed Yes | 3c | 14,858$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 14,409$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 0c | 13,571$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…6b76backed Yes | 0c | 12,399$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +306.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,486$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…69fdbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 5c | 8,478$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,084$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes | 5c | 6,069$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.6 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 1c | 5,927$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…d0e8backed Yes | 1c | 5,679$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234f…8c52backed Yes | 1c | 5,004$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 7c | 4,528$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.65 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 10c | 3,195$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.8 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcc…e559backed Yes | 1c | 2,483$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 2c | 2,469$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 1c | 2,140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8276…08f7backed Yes | 4c | 2,031$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x028f…f5abbacked Yes | 6c | 1,888$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 4c | 1,883$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…c28abacked Yes | 1c | 1,568$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +717.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 7c | 1,564$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02d…f1c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,520$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +183.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 2c | 1,107$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…ff2abacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…1327backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…8bf1backed Yes | 2c | 958.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8619…2ab5backed Yes | 11c | 929.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 12c | 854.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bf…84c7backed Yes | 12c | 834.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 828.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…bd29backed Yes | 12c | 790$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked Yes | 13c | 748.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…4001backed Yes | 2c | 701.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 4c | 617.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee6…cda0backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 5c | 594.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 532.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 3c | 439.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…ecc4backed Yes | 5c | 369.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…486cbacked Yes | 10c | 350.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ff…359abacked Yes | 13c | 342.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…4cd8backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…58d9backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…d0c5backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…c064backed Yes | 13c | 195$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…be87backed Yes | 13c | 192.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 7c | 174.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…a996backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…fdffbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…e42abacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…199ebacked Yes | 9c | 116$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…5f1fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…4e09backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on July 1?this page
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1?Yes won
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1?No won
- Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1?No won
- Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.