Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdec80349218f98d030cd5c63f1a436319bc868a93f4928eff4d7e05bed67cc2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,894,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,020,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,894,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63e9…e1a1backed Yes | 48c | 90,113$43,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,096.27 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x028f…f5abbacked Yes | 53c | 77,215$41,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,175.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229a…54cebacked Yes | 20c | 37,286$7,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,667.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 68c | 30,587$20,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,910.65 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883e…81a8backed Yes | 51c | 30,263$15,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,780.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 54c | 19,280$10,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,418.81 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 35c | 15,427$5,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,017.72 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 17c | 13,033$2,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,855.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 54c | 12,211$6,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,622.69 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…a25ebacked Yes | 18c | 12,029$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,890.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…69fdbacked Yes | 21c | 10,000$2,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,907.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed Yes | 17c | 9,419$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,819.06 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236f…eec4backed Yes | 62c | 8,173$5,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,077.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 45c | 6,637$2,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,682.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1b…d367backed No | 51c | 6,543$3,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,308.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7c…a490backed Yes | 17c | 6,178$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,132.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +491.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 53c | 6,000$3,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,830 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 18c | 5,370$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,420.41 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 11c | 5,057$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,485.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 18c | 4,870$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,009.9 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 15c | 4,159$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,525.78 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…5e0fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,877$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,549.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +246.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 55c | 3,750$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked No | 4c | 3,599$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.95 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff62…1148backed Yes | 23c | 3,500$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,712 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 3,353$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.62 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5a…3d19backed Yes | 38c | 3,020$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…58d9backed Yes | 58c | 2,723$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 33c | 2,664$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.5 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef91…97b1backed Yes | 22c | 2,584$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 17c | 2,492$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.69 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…205bbacked No | 44c | 2,416$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.21 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…ef13backed No | 77c | 2,350$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,809.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,336$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +601.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 31c | 2,201$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 21c | 2,200$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,744.66 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked No | 77c | 1,991$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 57c | 1,872$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 25c | 1,755$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8276…08f7backed Yes | 11c | 1,673$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed Yes | 63c | 1,585$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 10c | 1,584$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…fb67backed Yes | 22c | 1,538$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…8bf1backed Yes | 13c | 1,528$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 22c | 1,482$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.72 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes | 14c | 1,447$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.83 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…5265backed No | 41c | 1,420$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 51c | 1,400$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked No | 41c | 1,388$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.94 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Yes | 17c | 1,347$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f1…8dd4backed No | 45c | 1,327$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 75c | 1,327$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.88 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcc…e559backed Yes | 16c | 1,324$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…014fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,319$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…2bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 1,311$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x444a…f6c5backed No | 75c | 1,230$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 13c | 1,220$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +281.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac9…57d2backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +186.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…d26ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,167$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 66c | 1,100$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…9c11backed Yes | 17c | 1,085$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.36 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 56c | 1,068$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…3e84backed Yes | 19c | 1,063$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…53d9backed Yes | 18c | 1,024$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…a167backed Yes | 66c | 980.29$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2f…9d1bbacked Yes | 23c | 962.83$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…39bebacked Yes | 18c | 951.06$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +250.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc797…1895backed Yes | 72c | 945.87$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34f…d79cbacked No | 36c | 941.7$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…8bcabacked Yes | 55c | 901.36$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…bd29backed Yes | 23c | 856$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 803$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.01 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…d0c5backed Yes | 12c | 799.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…22ddbacked Yes | 13c | 786.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +279.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x537c…6de2backed Yes | 4c | 757.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +1,253%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 37c | 756.89$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…fe65backed Yes | 58c | 743.45$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…9400backed Yes | 12c | 741.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…2556backed Yes | 15c | 700$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…2288backed Yes | 23c | 671.62$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…9145backed Yes | 69c | 666.99$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f40…ad53backed Yes | 15c | 658.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +558.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c3…b35abacked Yes | 53c | 646.69$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…368cbacked Yes | 15c | 645.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 51c | 642.34$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.76 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…4bc0backed Yes | 46c | 610.87$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.87 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8619…2ab5backed Yes | 22c | 609.09$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…9fe7backed No | 77c | 591$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.07 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dec…16f9backed Yes | 62c | 575.11$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9829…d58fbacked Yes | 14c | 561.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed Yes | 18c | 529.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.49 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 16c | 520.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.96 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f2…1415backed Yes | 56c | 509.21$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Yes | 23c | 506.22$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.76 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 65c | 500.46$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.02 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…6b76backed Yes | 4c | 487.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +306.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…d609backed Yes | 23c | 466.45$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 34c | 443$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1?this page
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on July 1?No won
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1?No won
- Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1?No won
- Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.