TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$889,461
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$842,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $889,461 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0540…98ebbacked No65c76,833$50,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,616.562138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes1c31,876$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.67714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes55c21,959$11,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,982.581963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5634…8d07backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes1c19,553$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.08616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-62.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes23c18,075$4,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,128.543312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-69.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes38c13,878$5,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,253.1887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63e9…e1a1backed No76c12,693$9,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,032.161266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c11,789$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a81…3f74backed Yes2c10,204$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x611e…10ddbacked Yes51c10,160$5,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,215.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f0…6b76backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+306.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6030…5e0fbacked Yes0c9,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+246.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x028f…f5abbacked Yes35c9,210$3,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,245.381330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x653a…bb03backed No61c9,000$5,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,509.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf662…3e84backed Yes35c8,871$3,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,071.83944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes18c8,860$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.18520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x883e…81a8backed No56c8,605$4,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,753.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefdb…7358backed Yes33c7,529$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,473.72231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c1…bdb9backed Yes2c7,220$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.53935.9%14 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes18c6,973$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e22…f021backed Yes56c6,518$3,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,657.421421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-63%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x229a…54cebacked Yes46c6,318$2,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,902333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+63.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f3…d803backed Yes57c5,982$3,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,423.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f1b…d367backed Yes30c5,120$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.391850%9 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc383…83f9backed No47c4,859$2,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cf…69fdbacked No52c4,697$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,276.361040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f32…1532backed Yes21c4,685$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x323b…9fe7backed Yes46c4,461$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.912665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes2c3,966$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.059427.7%26 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed Yes41c3,240$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.281361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd561…9b7bbacked No57c3,071$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.423452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cf…75d1backed No55c3,036$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.451450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked Yes1c3,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.832218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e03…8388backed Yes43c2,798$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1af7…cd2dbacked Yes46c2,730$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes36c2,502$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.9955032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe362…7430backed Yes2c2,500$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.51225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ffd…d225backed Yes7c2,343$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.56933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes42c2,215$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.7264812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3581…3c1bbacked Yes42c2,196$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.482025%5 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-55.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes27c2,080$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.6517229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes34c2,045$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.5712012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,036$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.661,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca7…31a2backed No66c1,888$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.161060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked No51c1,734$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.17742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85cf…51e8backed Yes58c1,731$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0032412.5%3 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e7…ef3bbacked No59c1,699$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.852085%17 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa73…adabbacked No59c1,669$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61e…4925backed Yes42c1,642$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe642…9440backed Yes36c1,581$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.15540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed No62c1,410$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.9763835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c1,388$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.6511533%38 W · 77 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x693d…fc7cbacked Yes32c1,300$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4223336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bec…56d0backed Yes16c1,279$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2f…9d1bbacked Yes1c1,264$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+117.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Yes38c1,255$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.12326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No79c1,200$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2525034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yes63c1,195$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7506468.8%44 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No55c1,117$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.581435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9197…08d4backed Yes34c1,101$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.682445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d12…624cbacked Yes54c1,091$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.7730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec57…e0acbacked Yes49c1,012$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x277f…ed32backed Yes60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8aa…1342backed Yes4c983$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.85540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f39…27a5backed No52c958.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.193100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+50.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61c0…21febacked No67c956.28$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.81955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c3…b35abacked Yes26c929.11$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+69.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No62c900$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.210545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Yes40c897.35$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad92…88e2backed Yes41c828.87$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes54c807$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.847229.2%21 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8441…d0c5backed Yes19c799.84$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.75825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+49%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked No64c720.13$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.134242.9%18 W · 24 L-8.8wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb715…b209backed Yes2c710$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-53.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e1f…aa60backed No65c673.01$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe34f…d79cbacked Yes34c636.89$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.03911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-85.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed No56c627.27$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.277020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5320…f3b2backed Yes48c617.19$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Yes40c601.22$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.71827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da5…9c11backed Yes29c581.43$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.374042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e85…8414backed No63c576.19$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes35c568.57$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19934848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a96…dcd0backed Yes49c567$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.9970%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed No58c542.65$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.28580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+48.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6111…c02fbacked Yes11c521.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72af…6a39backed No51c520.81$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed No59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2051450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+63.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff62…1148backed No41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2951566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+34.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20028021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x838a…add1backed Yes44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c2b…de3abacked No53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2353259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9879…eae8backed Yes42c479.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4290…e2c0backed No57c453.68$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.088428.6%24 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Yes35c450$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.56613.6%9 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1019…5095backed No51c405$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8be4…58d9backed Yes28c405$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d74…be87backed Yes30c401.66$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x608c…39c9backed No48c400$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2092454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.