TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$927,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,009,074

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $927,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd748…2125backed Yes79c77,325$61,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,990.863540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c71,271$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.164440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes48c26,134$12,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,543.459345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes76c24,468$18,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,916.0911853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes52c18,811$9,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,035.96633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes64c18,213$11,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,607.12913.8%4 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-8.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc708…70abbacked No47c15,354$7,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,148.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-68%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes18c15,011$2,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,381.319027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes78c12,176$9,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,659.26439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20da…06e3backed No3c8,980$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.49520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-58.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes72c8,503$6,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,342.596149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4b73…bd19backed No23c6,978$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90fe…8bfebacked Yes75c6,666$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,665.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No68c6,576$4,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.1210127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cbc…309bbacked No31c6,546$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes50c5,855$2,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.522240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+65.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No28c5,459$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,544.23128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-86%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No48c5,404$2,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,608.7214027.9%39 W · 101 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No21c5,162$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.152425%6 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…4ea5backed No1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes66c5,000$3,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725254%1 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-93.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x295b…2e44backed No2c4,850$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.31233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+56%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked No24c4,813$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.5580%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdc1…35c1backed No21c4,775$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked No44c4,533$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,989.238932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No13c4,236$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.1716612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8733…a6f0backed Yes36c4,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,560933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-20.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c3,743$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.796883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes51c3,389$1,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.084634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c3,370$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.871,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes48c3,369$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.271631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x457f…b04abacked Yes61c3,277$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes66c3,232$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.8711428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked No65c3,202$2,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.371631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes64c3,200$2,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.763420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0086…47c1backed Yes17c3,191$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,662.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+101.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes45c3,064$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.928456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes70c2,879$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.012955.2%16 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc821…3df4backed No2c2,726$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3480%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes68c2,681$1,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.113542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No32c2,636$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.9656314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes14c2,598$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,238.589627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e29…75b6backed No36c2,592$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.8180%0 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Yes69c2,507$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.032740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes25c2,482$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,855.922646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39b5…cf5fbacked No3c2,472$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd254…3e3bbacked No1c2,414$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf445…8184backed No14c2,362$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed Yes61c2,302$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.394531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes73c2,250$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.3811331%35 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No67c2,222$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.749334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes74c2,177$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.83941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked Yes65c2,000$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7051957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes22c2,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56010928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No26c1,975$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.937117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Yes71c1,943$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.35560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2021…034fbacked No2c1,905$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.84425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-45.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe645…345abacked Yes28c1,890$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.691338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcd…2c60backed No18c1,807$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes42c1,805$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.0214834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6364…09a8backed Yes32c1,797$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+112.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f95…cdfcbacked No32c1,766$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb96c…6cc6backed No24c1,754$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.251216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+309.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes71c1,743$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.244540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5579…0a9cbacked No37c1,576$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.25425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-65.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e55…d5c5backed No29c1,520$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No16c1,500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24016535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed Yes70c1,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4502075%15 W · 5 L+4.8wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+51.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xba76…616bbacked Yes42c1,477$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.58520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes35c1,421$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.252040%8 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes77c1,409$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.153234.4%11 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb032…4e09backed Yes65c1,405$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa528…9f2fbacked No27c1,400$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes51c1,374$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.225446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x838b…a603backed Yes12c1,353$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.921118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes63c1,306$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.9611454.4%62 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No66c1,291$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.754555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007225%18 W · 54 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+262.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes66c1,241$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.123225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd042…a60abacked No1c1,198$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b0…2821backed Yes20c1,140$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.18520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes60c1,110$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44412133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dbe…f726backed No43c1,100$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe2b…67fabacked Yes66c1,097$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.311258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6653…110dbacked Yes74c1,078$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.55560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+231.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes30c1,074$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.48955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+38.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0723…2762backed Yes72c1,050$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.73560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+254%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes76c1,000$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2384037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes24c999.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7605925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31c1…bc19backed Yes72c990.61$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.07450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed Yes78c964.62$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes73c955.01$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.72958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No21c951.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.927335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes78c936.36$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.522152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes62c871.57$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.271353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes80c870.26$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes65c850$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2994526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc9e…8f12backed No18c840.03$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f30…c216backed Yes33c807.42$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.42425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes11c800.31$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.927618.4%14 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.