TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,671,168
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,447,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,671,168 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc708…70abbacked Yes18c153,309$26,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,931.43520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-68%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20da…06e3backed Yes1c82,918$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.21520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-58.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c68,953$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.914440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes4c51,122$2,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,171.5580%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b8…13a2backed Yes29c33,468$9,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,748.15714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes7c32,405$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.428932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes3c32,096$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.1419027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc821…3df4backed Yes1c28,633$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1780%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8733…a6f0backed Yes6c28,375$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.14933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-20.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes14c24,150$3,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4572913.8%4 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-8.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x136a…319dbacked Yes18c23,720$4,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,371.14520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes4c21,618$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.659345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes7c19,134$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.376883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07a6…ebe8backed Yes25c18,897$4,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,817.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18e7…3b2abacked Yes18c17,742$3,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,228.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes1c16,560$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.796149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9d3f…49ccbacked Yes17c15,367$2,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,686.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc4…7028backed Yes5c14,123$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.91425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick3cpaid+1,179.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2021…034fbacked Yes1c12,927$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-45.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes3c12,236$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.571513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c11,983$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.731,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab4…daf9backed Yes9c11,437$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f30…c216backed Yes10c9,976$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.69425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac80…97b1backed No79c9,714$7,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.181250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f71…8a3abacked Yes19c8,567$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f6…46eabacked Yes1c8,174$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec7b…faadbacked Yes5c8,156$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.791520%3 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+742.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0939…b5a6backed Yes22c7,495$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,646.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes2c7,430$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.75147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid+10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes14c6,811$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.9616612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b49…95e9backed Yes17c6,779$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4762…b521backed Yes18c6,402$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4f…5e76backed Yes16c6,262$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes0c6,009$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes3c5,879$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.271353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6364…09a8backed Yes15c5,861$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+112.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6587…35d9backed Yes8c5,613$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-62.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Yes8c5,530$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.111020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-70.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ccc…5d5abacked Yes11c5,331$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed Yes7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes6c4,859$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.6114027.9%39 W · 101 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes6c4,791$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.584634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62cf…0806backed Yes14c4,647$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7e…5ce1backed Yes26c4,574$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.88520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes16c4,470$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.282133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x863a…f88fbacked Yes11c4,120$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No79c4,083$3,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.1924736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes3c4,067$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0411331%35 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c4,044$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.256314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9637…3a87backed Yes12c4,016$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba5…6916backed Yes16c3,873$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-78.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c3,589$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.641,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0086…47c1backed Yes2c3,546$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+101.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab03…5c70backed Yes17c3,523$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes3c3,370$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885630.4%17 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa79…8a47backed Yes19c3,370$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd0…0f6abacked Yes1c3,300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1270%0 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes2c3,152$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.651216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes7c3,072$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.4311428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes20c3,000$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.710928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b97…5a5ebacked Yes7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick11cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x817a…7101backed Yes10c3,000$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6970…684abacked Yes17c2,953$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc417…9043backed Yes8c2,869$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27b5…c668backed Yes4c2,771$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.67742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e55…d5c5backed Yes13c2,662$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90b2…b89bbacked Yes0c2,640$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes19c2,570$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.852814.3%4 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-69.8%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes7c2,519$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.986040%24 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes3c2,500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7018036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes2c2,500$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.59613.5%13 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Yes15c2,471$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-78%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe101…1301backed Yes24c2,465$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x569f…f97cbacked Yes29c2,305$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x998d…b62cbacked Yes25c2,238$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+165.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes6c2,220$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0316029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes7c2,168$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.67225%18 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes26c2,104$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.491060%6 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+61.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d03…fabfbacked Yes24c2,067$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes12c2,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.514834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd256…b945backed Yes16c2,000$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.733633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4605925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…e5ecbacked Yes22c1,928$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed Yes15c1,907$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29050%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x14f7…a7a9backed Yes27c1,897$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…093abacked Yes21c1,883$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-60.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x460d…5ec7backed Yes29c1,867$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes8c1,796$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf704…fe03backed Yes17c1,632$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f91…9388backed Yes17c1,630$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.6728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x372a…7201backed Yes23c1,611$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3723935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes1c1,579$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.211676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes12c1,561$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.055729.8%17 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ba7…9e91backed Yes10c1,522$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7b…cdbebacked Yes7c1,505$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.04540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x785b…7d17backed Yes18c1,500$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.32450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+464%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes9c1,500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.21per pick21cpaid+52.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No77c1,497$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.342152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed1d…8707backed Yes5c1,496$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.042313%3 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe66a…adb0backed Yes21c1,487$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.