TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$195,811
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,811 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes16c10,655$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,670.9614330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked Yes41c5,372$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,187.851942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes8c5,103$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.5719027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes40c5,026$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.113540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes40c4,832$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.592814.3%4 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-69.8%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes32c4,541$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.445925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No58c3,658$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.849345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No47c3,175$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.343243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes19c3,125$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.8312133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed No64c2,627$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.538555.3%47 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209613.5%13 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No67c2,110$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.326149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb782…955cbacked Yes17c2,061$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.361421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.465935.6%21 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8731…1181backed Yes15c1,882$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.257057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed1d…8707backed Yes9c1,759$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.42313%3 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No67c1,751$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes36c1,511$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.513444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes21c1,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3156328.6%18 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes25c1,302$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.14147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid+10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes39c1,292$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.259627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No52c1,285$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.3932255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes27c1,244$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.827828.2%22 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c47…c146backed Yes51c1,162$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed No70c1,143$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.862128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes59c1,001$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x8dfe…c769backed Yes36c964.75$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c915.53$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.091,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked No73c853.39$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.872839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid-13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes7c800.22$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0111039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3154…e615backed Yes31c799.18$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.871526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes7c754.23$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6114027.9%39 W · 101 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes35c749.23$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.319631.3%30 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No63c684.33$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.922365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc5a2…9981backed Yes8c655.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd256…b945backed Yes28c619.99$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.493633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fdb…6919backed Yes19c615$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x022a…2da6backed Yes33c606.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes27c559.89$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.078456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No58c545.45$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.677618.4%14 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No65c536.84$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.844161%25 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7514834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c438.85$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.6688448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes27c408.31$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5137117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes34c400.68$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4144921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6438023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No64c400$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1464623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac9…420cbacked Yes44c397.56$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes21c393.35$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9331534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f7…7a46backed Yes14c382.28$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.422222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf79b…c37cbacked Yes26c381.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked No53c378$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.6618214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9706…3df6backed Yes10c377.1$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0870%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x701c…e096backed Yes10c368.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351520%3 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+54.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78ca…967dbacked Yes43c350.08$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a6…8297backed Yes15c347$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.052128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x25a3…ce19backed Yes14c339.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.12240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No52c321.09$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1220034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No60c312.25$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.835072%36 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+26.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1601…ed94backed Yes24c303.7$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.51533.3%5 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+2,128.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01c7…cf00backed Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5427828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed No58c299.99$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.995044%22 W · 28 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+223.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes10c258.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8222029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes11c230$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.37833.3%26 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c215.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6256314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes7c214.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.085630.4%17 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes26c213$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.386755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedaa…c137backed Yes30c211.74$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8650%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes28c210$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.91533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-52.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No67c206.67$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.624168.3%28 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+8.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3445723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No50c200$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1014955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf65…fde8backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x55d7…35f4backed Yes38c197.54$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes45c196.77$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.391612.5%2 W · 14 L-5.4wins-0.34per pick46cpaid-82.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc3da…d974backed Yes29c190.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.091952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7031…0a23backed Yes47c178.56$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+94.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90a…06b7backed Yes13c177$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.371346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedad…1af7backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes13c163.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.73511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-60%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Yes37c163.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.231926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-70.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+20.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb59…1e96backed Yes41c146.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91ab…402cbacked Yes35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd1…070dbacked Yes29c135.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes22c134.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.614112.2%5 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes34c133$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.435530.9%17 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7152…b4bcbacked Yes45c127.78$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes40c126.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502450%12 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfe5…711abacked No65c114.83$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.83540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b3…c9f7backed Yes57c114.45$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6537…b1d5backed Yes45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x084d…5bf6backed Yes40c111$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.41020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2634726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.