Will the JA21 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7071e0e0b80556b000f399a94e40600d84dd80e894d417afd4eea743eeb7fd18

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $152,590
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $104,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,590 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	20,980$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.98	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	1c	11,601$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.44	190	27.9%53 W · 137 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+53%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4656…6944backed Yes	1c	11,504$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.03	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	0c	9,112$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.34	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+70.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7987…e367backed Yes	4c	8,001$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Yes	2c	4,321$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.14	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	23cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79eb…f471backed Yes	2c	4,113$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.19	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	1c	3,911$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.08	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	+9.9wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,422$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.03	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x701c…e096backed Yes	1c	2,831$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	2c	2,569$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.18	293	9.2%27 W · 266 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85d…b128backed Yes	5c	2,452$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.61	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	39cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf172…3226backed Yes	4c	2,182$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8731…1181backed Yes	1c	2,024$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+5.9wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes	2c	1,950$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.95	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x302c…044abacked Yes	3c	1,693$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Yes	1c	1,323$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	50	44%22 W · 28 L	+5.6wins	+0.11per pick	33cpaid	+223.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a9e…55c1backed Yes	2c	1,283$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.79	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	2c	1,171$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e37…03d2backed Yes	4c	1,012$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.72	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+542.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09c…aed0backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e6…19f5backed Yes	2c	925.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes	2c	879.54$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-60%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf72d…9bd8backed Yes	3c	824.62$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.03	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b3…a9e2backed Yes	3c	755.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa258…2055backed Yes	3c	723.69$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.98	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ab…a766backed Yes	1c	722.34$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-82%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes	2c	710.95$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.87	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes	3c	706.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c93…080ebacked Yes	5c	402.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	5c	203$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	76	18.4%14 W · 62 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the JA21 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event