World Politics · resolved market
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x241196e643e4ee235afde589a4c8a4eafadf89677e0fd212791f72899498821f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,164,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,164,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8c4…3fe2backed Yes | 0c | 197,448$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…9d20backed Yes | 0c | 147,492$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5d…2405backed Yes | 0c | 135,758$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca94…6590backed Yes | 0c | 104,356$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…7f3dbacked Yes | 0c | 104,356$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…74debacked Yes | 0c | 103,886$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd378…115cbacked Yes | 0c | 103,881$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…9bdabacked Yes | 0c | 103,876$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546b…bbcabacked Yes | 0c | 103,876$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…73dabacked Yes | 0c | 103,876$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd9…fed2backed Yes | 0c | 103,876$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c95…10c7backed Yes | 0c | 103,876$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf543…5854backed Yes | 0c | 103,876$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…3cd6backed Yes | 0c | 101,832$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba3…7ec2backed Yes | 0c | 101,814$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1d…1a58backed Yes | 0c | 101,780$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…d974backed Yes | 0c | 101,678$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…2410backed Yes | 0c | 101,678$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa5…a620backed Yes | 0c | 101,678$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…1b5abacked Yes | 0c | 98,962$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…9eafbacked Yes | 0c | 97,582$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5b…cfbabacked Yes | 0c | 97,582$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ed…7d15backed Yes | 0c | 97,258$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d1…0807backed Yes | 0c | 96,249$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe82…c3dabacked Yes | 0c | 95,240$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c4…98e3backed Yes | 0c | 95,159$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…4049backed Yes | 0c | 95,078$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…fe7bbacked Yes | 0c | 82,933$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf160…0a7dbacked Yes | 0c | 70,524$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…746ebacked Yes | 0c | 70,469$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…8146backed Yes | 0c | 68,743$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…d172backed Yes | 0c | 67,785$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f3…01e9backed Yes | 0c | 67,785$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…89b0backed Yes | 0c | 67,785$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…5725backed Yes | 0c | 67,785$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…c80fbacked Yes | 0c | 67,785$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d9…4932backed Yes | 0c | 66,866$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…177ebacked Yes | 0c | 66,866$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777c…4849backed Yes | 0c | 52,468$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89c…90a3backed Yes | 0c | 52,367$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…e746backed Yes | 0c | 52,367$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…84bbbacked Yes | 0c | 52,178$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3d…11ccbacked Yes | 0c | 51,938$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…1266backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f7…3989backed Yes | 0c | 47,539$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…66a5backed Yes | 0c | 46,147$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 25,232$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,213$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,071$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?this page
- Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Christian Union win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Denk win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Forum for Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the JA21 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the New Social Contract win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Reformed Political Party win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Socialist Party win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Volt Netherlands win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.