TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

AI · resolved market

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$336,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$342,048

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $336,067 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 389 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes57c9,699$5,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,201.777330.1%22 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes71c9,146$6,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.041241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95bf…e00bbacked No55c7,751$4,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,248.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf654…3265backed No16c5,753$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No3c5,600$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1466311.3%8 W · 623 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked No47c5,206$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.663740.5%15 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes72c5,049$3,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.118150.6%41 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes74c4,893$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.4727536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b02…460ebacked No47c4,360$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,044.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes61c4,070$2,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.138754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes73c3,971$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.294235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes51c3,493$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.245554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes41c3,452$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.371931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c2,875$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.12522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes62c2,800$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.0111850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x528a…f94abacked No66c2,765$1,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,815.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes57c2,650$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.791952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No37c2,519$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.8948138%183 W · 298 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes55c2,363$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.768864.8%57 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes63c2,246$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.563438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes65c2,104$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.797337%27 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No45c2,100$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.759850%49 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No11c2,011$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.451,3686.8%93 W · 1,275 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5802638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0486…2a2fbacked No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007332.9%24 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x657c…b53cbacked No1c1,952$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c1,931$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.192792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7be…f3ecbacked No5c1,850$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3749…7ad0backed No40c1,770$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No16c1,762$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.64456.7%3 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes70c1,637$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.459041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed No28c1,604$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.124231%13 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No28c1,539$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.881910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-74.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No3c1,505$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.75812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-72.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ad…9a6dbacked No55c1,502$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8271118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No5c1,469$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.57724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes44c1,457$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.322548%12 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4580…cd15backed No26c1,397$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Yes45c1,381$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.338047.5%38 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No24c1,371$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.134325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x624d…d225backed No49c1,333$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5129…add5backed Yes72c1,300$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6f…8760backed No7c1,279$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2baf…1ed4backed Yes71c1,260$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeaf…998cbacked No38c1,257$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ef…3f37backed Yes66c1,251$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6174…fbcabacked No19c1,226$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.64333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0231…fdcdbacked No20c1,188$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.0360%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No7c1,140$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.451175.1%6 W · 111 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-65.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes61c1,092$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.172835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd33…cf51backed No60c1,085$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.14714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-79.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed No2c1,074$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.32290%0 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2110…5850backed Yes53c1,041$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4896048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No33c1,031$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.8720148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1605…43bfbacked No5c1,012$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes48c1,009$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd281…f7bdbacked No20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25a…7dd5backed No11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb46f…fa4ebacked Yes75c999.99$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x631c…450fbacked Yes50c995.59$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.591346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No5c992.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.54870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97f9…133abacked No43c962.83$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41560%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No6c961.83$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.17850%0 W · 85 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacd9…003dbacked No10c899.98$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d2e…c986backed No35c851.49$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.86633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x151d…ebfcbacked No43c833.33$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4044…8de5backed No59c800$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.54728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes64c781.84$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x081c…c4e4backed No32c772.61$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb949…d8e0backed No53c754.8$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a11…3c2abacked Yes38c719$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No41c713.28$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.619157.1%52 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b46…ddd1backed Yes38c712$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4e…2457backed Yes38c712$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x142f…d08abacked Yes38c710$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08aa…03bbbacked Yes38c705$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4c…8138backed Yes52c689.11$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Yes65c680.4$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.44228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c9…3806backed No50c666$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2044…60f7backed Yes50c666$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3332100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes42c663.47$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.9110426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5622…f55dbacked No27c659.6$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba6…af21backed No36c631.1$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c1a…7871backed No48c618.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No25c614.35$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.933627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No6c600$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6521.9%1 W · 51 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No21c587.15$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5518311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab0…9663backed Yes52c578.1$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-75.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes34c550.65$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36324315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x372e…5eb8backed No10c550$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0702…d5f9backed No27c550$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1462552%13 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No29c546.34$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.718041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x379d…2afdbacked No12c536.17$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1054360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa20…9262backed Yes40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3002828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3c…b4b8backed No23c499.96$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes75c494.38$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.826136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes30c475.34$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.813040%12 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde55…dc14backed Yes40c471.24$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.47475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+50.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.