AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8947925aa89cdf1e70d7755df73c099c1977d322fb64ac20a2d2ee9850c9f913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 13,823$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.05 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 1c | 8,650$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes | 0c | 4,840$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af3…d205backed Yes | 0c | 4,156$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 3,609$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.73 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…a82dbacked Yes | 34c | 3,193$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 3,140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…d017backed Yes | 4c | 2,782$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,712$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…ed9abacked Yes | 24c | 2,281$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,115$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 4c | 2,097$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,921$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…7ad0backed Yes | 40c | 1,920$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 23c | 1,565$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.85 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…1ff9backed Yes | 3c | 1,542$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 74c | 1,468$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 13c | 1,400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,327$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,307$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…c46bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,281$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 8c | 1,159$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…5e2dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,132$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked Yes | 39c | 990.3$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…9af9backed Yes | 2c | 981.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…e839backed Yes | 52c | 970.73$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 967.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…8104backed Yes | 16c | 955.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 946.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…3533backed Yes | 13c | 943.93$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d8…19e6backed Yes | 4c | 912.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 4cpaid | +887.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf54f…43babacked Yes | 6c | 909.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e07…986dbacked Yes | 44c | 908.35$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 15c | 900$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2e…c986backed Yes | 19c | 900$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 10c | 831.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 795.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6f…99edbacked Yes | 16c | 792.01$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 22c | 787.72$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.59 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 758.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…6463backed Yes | 67c | 748.45$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…fdcdbacked Yes | 5c | 747.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c9…3806backed Yes | 40c | 666$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2044…60f7backed No | 60c | 666$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…a17dbacked Yes | 2c | 661.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 73c | 612.48$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.22 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…d88bbacked Yes | 18c | 598.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ef…3f37backed Yes | 24c | 555.57$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…c4a9backed Yes | 14c | 555.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 2c | 528.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ef…ae3bbacked Yes | 10c | 526.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…4b6ebacked Yes | 17c | 490$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 36c | 465.16$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.42 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 6c | 453.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3ad7backed Yes | 13c | 432.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 47c | 412.58$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.56 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb880…c0f9backed Yes | 41c | 408.07$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 10c | 400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…d7a1backed Yes | 27c | 371.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed Yes | 22c | 362.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3446…b944backed Yes | 17c | 300.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 56c | 300$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 7c | 299.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.19per pick | 13cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 63c | 299.28$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795a…b875backed Yes | 14c | 294.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed Yes | 39c | 290$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.38 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Yes | 19c | 263.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed Yes | 43c | 259.22$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Yes | 20c | 255.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes | 40c | 251.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f9…133abacked Yes | 39c | 249.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 239.93$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 67c | 235.2$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…d077backed Yes | 36c | 215.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…71f6backed Yes | 48c | 209.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 208.86$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb6…56d3backed Yes | 29c | 207.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…fd3bbacked Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…f176backed Yes | 27c | 198.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6467…7cadbacked Yes | 56c | 195.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 16c | 193.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +478.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…03bebacked Yes | 32c | 189.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…a218backed Yes | 53c | 188.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked No | 57c | 181.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…3763backed Yes | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +175.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…0893backed Yes | 43c | 174.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…a5dcbacked Yes | 33c | 167.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 13c | 159.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 67c | 156.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…27aebacked Yes | 33c | 151.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes | 35c | 148$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…8a3fbacked Yes | 21c | 144.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…1f7bbacked Yes | 36c | 140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.