AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc13f481f15d0a63c343c2977940f41d0ff4edf7bf7f1dc7d69a108246396128e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $295,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 27,964$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.02 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 4c | 12,851$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.24 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d42…d049backed Yes | 1c | 10,634$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de4…805bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,130$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…dbcfbacked Yes | 10c | 7,818$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…642abacked Yes | 5c | 7,717$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…e7cabacked Yes | 8c | 5,266$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…abd7backed Yes | 2c | 4,324$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 4,186$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,017$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…43bfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,614$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes | 1c | 3,475$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 3,052$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,042$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 7c | 3,025$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.17 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 2,797$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c2…84f3backed Yes | 5c | 2,556$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…5f53backed Yes | 3c | 2,472$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,415$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…ed9abacked Yes | 13c | 2,408$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,362$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…9c31backed Yes | 5c | 2,156$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 2c | 2,064$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…d017backed Yes | 5c | 2,016$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 2,014$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3ad7backed Yes | 4c | 1,841$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,833$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,793$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2074…767cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,768$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 4c | 1,767$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…d520backed Yes | 1c | 1,761$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…0e1abacked Yes | 1c | 1,739$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 1,689$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,618$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,541$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 4c | 1,513$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 5c | 1,501$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ad…9a6dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,409$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 4c | 1,404$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…3533backed Yes | 10c | 1,350$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed Yes | 2c | 1,320$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,126$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Yes | 5c | 1,087$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,053$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…a82dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,010$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…3239backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…bee7backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb62…4f95backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7d…7e80backed Yes | 10c | 993.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 991.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326f…0031backed Yes | 3c | 980.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 1c | 953.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f87…1bdabacked Yes | 1c | 944.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 924.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 2c | 900$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 891.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9c…32e2backed Yes | 9c | 871.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…090dbacked Yes | 8c | 862.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…fdcdbacked Yes | 12c | 807.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 2c | 736.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 7c | 617.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…8760backed Yes | 5c | 578.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…5bd9backed Yes | 3c | 577.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 4c | 541.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…3a19backed Yes | 5c | 531.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 2c | 518$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaed…130abacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410e…39efbacked Yes | 2c | 499.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 4c | 456.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b5…1f8cbacked Yes | 13c | 443.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed Yes | 5c | 438.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 5c | 426.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 8c | 399.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac6f…99edbacked Yes | 3c | 399.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 390.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 9c | 371.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…cabebacked Yes | 5c | 366.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a95…852fbacked Yes | 10c | 356.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 8c | 319.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…f53dbacked Yes | 5c | 280$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…576fbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…7b54backed Yes | 8c | 241.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 218.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x295d…5abcbacked Yes | 12c | 215.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…1ff9backed Yes | 19c | 215.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…0cfebacked Yes | 8c | 212.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…c565backed Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ef…3f37backed Yes | 10c | 199.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Yes | 8c | 168.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…c118backed Yes | 7c | 156.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed Yes | 13c | 149.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fc…4273backed Yes | 14c | 141.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…0893backed Yes | 11c | 137.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f9…133abacked Yes | 12c | 125.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 12c | 108$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…d40ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.