AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92d98653c47967f7516f20ebc4bc04bf21d59cce083431cdcc9b3eaa0ed2bea4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $261,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe47c…642abacked Yes | 1c | 13,564$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 10,243$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.43 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 7,871$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 4,665$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.24 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,748$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5361…593bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,332$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 2c | 3,253$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed Yes | 7c | 2,959$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.79 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,762$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9645…6c49backed Yes | 3c | 2,651$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc741…880abacked Yes | 4c | 2,319$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…3533backed Yes | 3c | 2,100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,044$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,009$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…e7cabacked Yes | 6c | 1,707$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,692$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,683$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 3c | 1,610$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,461$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c2…84f3backed Yes | 6c | 1,337$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 1,249$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…3239backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 973.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 962.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d30…c921backed Yes | 3c | 898.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 840.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 5c | 809.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 781.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5225…40f2backed Yes | 8c | 764.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 3c | 692.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…a17dbacked Yes | 3c | 637.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 2c | 586.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…1ff9backed Yes | 3c | 580.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 548.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f9…133abacked Yes | 3c | 535.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 3c | 517.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed Yes | 3c | 509.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 507.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…a99ebacked Yes | 2c | 464.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 443.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…a82dbacked Yes | 6c | 361.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e66…86a3backed Yes | 6c | 339.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fc…4273backed Yes | 7c | 292.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…d88bbacked Yes | 4c | 262.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 5c | 250.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…315bbacked Yes | 15c | 134.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…7b82backed Yes | 11c | 100.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.