TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$413,311
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$407,659

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $413,311 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf543…c0b6backed Yes51c52,950$27,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes1c24,992$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.231010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-83.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0540…98ebbacked Yes41c15,767$6,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,517.082138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9af…05adbacked Yes28c12,399$3,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,467.486018.3%11 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61c0…21febacked Yes16c7,704$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.35955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes0c5,980$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes1c5,518$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.682420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c5,237$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.662290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes1c5,100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.926425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed No48c5,000$2,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,62516761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4290…e2c0backed Yes24c5,000$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.328428.6%24 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1d63backed No48c4,248$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.457229.2%21 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x512c…d419backed Yes10c4,179$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.612828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes2c4,172$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3911316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc875…e78ebacked Yes0c4,034$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b3e…662cbacked No64c4,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4402850%14 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes7c3,563$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.64405%2 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-78.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked No69c3,508$2,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08417229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c2b…de3abacked No53c3,381$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.543259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9013…c064backed Yes3c3,206$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.531010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-77.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes53c3,200$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.3415023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeba7…fea3backed Yes17c2,920$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x111b…fdffbacked Yes1c2,832$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes15c2,452$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.28180%0 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfae7…991cbacked Yes12c2,230$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.75520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes34c1,682$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.1864812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,670$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.511,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc184…4cc0backed Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes1c1,458$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x028f…f5abbacked No80c1,440$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.031330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked No50c1,288$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.7315754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddcd…ccfebacked Yes1c1,135$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No65c1,111$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.4355032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c3…b35abacked Yes11c1,047$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+69.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes5c1,018$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503531.4%11 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked No39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6101625%4 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab41…6707backed No76c957.12$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee6…cda0backed Yes3c899.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+158.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d4…b026backed Yes3c888.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09db…c089backed Yes3c863.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.99128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-86.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb02…0f88backed Yes37c796.86$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.631225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c750.67$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4711619%22 W · 94 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-62%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2d9…8806backed Yes3c688.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f7…0331backed Yes6c666.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2ad…a413backed Yes3c642.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502650%13 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7948…9917backed Yes57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-78.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3581…3c1bbacked No61c485$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.392025%5 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-55.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2da5…9c11backed Yes7c476.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc9c…80ddbacked Yes7c462$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdb…7358backed Yes6c460$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.072231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2279…f9efbacked Yes7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No74c400$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.31827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked No57c400$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1702218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f50…8341backed Yes40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+101.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes5c399.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x205c…f554backed No51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.161181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+35.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6be6…afd0backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes3c316.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.72425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-62.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f2…1415backed Yes14c309.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.25955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf778…05b2backed Yes4c267.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdd7…b90fbacked No49c265.52$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.421457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54eb…0371backed Yes4c260$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1fe…d4e7backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ec…e142backed No75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-68.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7dd…f43dbacked No44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+240.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57bd…cf55backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+41.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1938…8e37backed Yes55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-59.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ad3…8448backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4755…9e4cbacked Yes9c116$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c6…d9dbbacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8f…144dbacked Yes23c92.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7203…8db5backed Yes58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8727…9b12backed No52c75.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.191060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf795…c3f5backed No48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49cd…ee4abacked No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed No54c41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.862045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19bc…0358backed No64c37.63$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.496188.5%54 W · 7 L+16.9wins+0.28per pick61cpaid+55.3%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x6b81…36c1backed Yes36c36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a38…f931backed Yes45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6404…7078backed Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbae5…b2b6backed Yes53c20.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.