Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bd4b4e767e5ee5b0be4f7c2a304fd8ba05fdde317017b3956846b5aa0f298b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x269c…9017backed Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,324$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 2c | 6,361$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 4c | 5,698$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.74 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 1c | 5,694$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d1…a4fbbacked Yes | 7c | 5,563$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef91…97b1backed Yes | 9c | 5,419$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 0c | 5,365$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,340$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.26 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,296$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.36 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 1c | 5,015$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffd…d225backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…dd1abacked Yes | 7c | 4,514$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.21 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed Yes | 18c | 3,963$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,757$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 5c | 2,862$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.58 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…f908backed Yes | 19c | 2,744$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,631$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ab…a338backed Yes | 5c | 2,600$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes | 8c | 2,502$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 16c | 2,484$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.34 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae7…991cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,229$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 1c | 2,180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…1111backed Yes | 3c | 1,922$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…ff98backed Yes | 6c | 1,836$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b30…48a8backed Yes | 9c | 1,769$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 1,453$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.19 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb02…0f88backed Yes | 16c | 1,112$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…ccfebacked Yes | 4c | 939.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821a…5c40backed Yes | 18c | 938.83$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 3c | 920.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…ccbebacked Yes | 14c | 839.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…9c11backed Yes | 17c | 772.45$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes | 3c | 761.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…9400backed Yes | 18c | 751.01$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 20c | 721.05$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.42 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee6…cda0backed Yes | 11c | 700$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 7c | 598.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 10c | 576.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34f…d79cbacked Yes | 10c | 575.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…8bcabacked Yes | 20c | 503.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…0a62backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…98c3backed Yes | 12c | 491.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 3c | 463.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 12c | 440$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 16c | 400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…b078backed Yes | 16c | 393.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bce…0cb0backed Yes | 4c | 386$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 9c | 382.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…be11backed Yes | 5c | 366.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 7c | 361.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…b64ebacked Yes | 6c | 333$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…486cbacked Yes | 8c | 320$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…d0c5backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d9…8806backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4311…5810backed Yes | 18c | 279.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…b725backed Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…3239backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…e142backed Yes | 18c | 190$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bb97backed Yes | 19c | 182.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…c064backed Yes | 18c | 169.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02b…6350backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb2…fedbbacked Yes | 21c | 143.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…73dbbacked Yes | 9c | 130.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…5d9dbacked Yes | 18c | 112.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…f7f4backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4860…a6b7backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…f928backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6e…b918backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11df…291bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc042…48e3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa01b…1ea8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 27?this page
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $102K on June 27?No won
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 27?No won
- Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 27?Yes won
- Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.