AI · resolved market
Will Google have the second best AI model on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2dced72068209cf8842bc8ddb17a46cf7ee8b3b7de18df64c6e131373167258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 7c | 15,748$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.74 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…9b8ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,004$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 16c | 3,928$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.81 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 27c | 3,903$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.1 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 15c | 3,851$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.03 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,302$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 12c | 2,182$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.75 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 22c | 2,075$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.49 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…9158backed Yes | 12c | 1,686$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 16c | 1,575$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.24 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,308$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.11 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…23f7backed Yes | 17c | 1,287$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.14 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 11c | 1,200$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed No | 78c | 1,048$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.64 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 20c | 995.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 68c | 923.02$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.55 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ab…6473backed No | 69c | 720.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.07 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 711.23$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked No | 74c | 679.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.18 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 67c | 578.98$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 17c | 517.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 33c | 502.8$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.45 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 57c | 500.46$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.47 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…5471backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 67c | 449.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.9 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…3ea8backed No | 70c | 427.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 426.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 19c | 417$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ee…00aebacked Yes | 12c | 416.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed Yes | 11c | 381.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x659b…e53abacked Yes | 11c | 315.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…a4a3backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 228.79$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…92eebacked Yes | 33c | 219.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 76c | 206.05$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…956abacked Yes | 16c | 188.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +61%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 30c | 176.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c81…eda9backed Yes | 18c | 166.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 65c | 140.77$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 63c | 139$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 18c | 136.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…54e7backed Yes | 32c | 123.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…cf24backed Yes | 17c | 118.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e3…1213backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a5…0fd2backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…32a1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…c61fbacked No | 64c | 90.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…4d3bbacked Yes | 14c | 85.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 14c | 77.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 79c | 74.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 19c | 73.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…0063backed No | 70c | 56.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…3a06backed No | 79c | 52.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 21c | 49.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…2be7backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…88a9backed No | 68c | 38.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…6ab9backed No | 70c | 33.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fc…3264backed No | 70c | 30.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…591abacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe021…234fbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe139…4a0bbacked No | 68c | 19.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…3ee7backed No | 68c | 18.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ce…064cbacked No | 79c | 12.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the second best AI model on October 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31?Yes won
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Meta have the second best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the second best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the second best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the second best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will xAI have the second best AI model on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.