AI · resolved market
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 30 2025 or later?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c444802bdca11649715072fd2c6ec4054b1c1e4f55eb8d1a4c11db85e921b2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $380,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 8c | 33,933$2,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,627.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…ee7bbacked Yes | 2c | 14,211$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 1c | 12,734$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…79c8backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 11,207$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.91 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 10,332$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.14 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…371cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,085$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 3c | 9,069$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 4c | 8,744$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.38 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…cfe2backed Yes | 7c | 7,366$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,701$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 11c | 6,530$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.49 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…c092backed Yes | 4c | 6,377$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 12c | 6,278$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.81 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Yes | 3c | 5,863$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.9 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3320…ff16backed Yes | 2c | 4,539$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed Yes | 1c | 3,552$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…2df0backed Yes | 6c | 2,999$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…ae83backed Yes | 1c | 2,845$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 2,708$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…97bcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,321$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…445cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,300$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,072$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…6dbabacked Yes | 2c | 1,787$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 37cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…9085backed Yes | 18c | 1,642$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,567$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…59f0backed Yes | 8c | 1,287$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7c68backed Yes | 8c | 1,272$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…b7bfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8048…f48dbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…93a9backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 3c | 981.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 2c | 923.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…d193backed Yes | 6c | 894.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…90acbacked Yes | 2c | 808.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…bac5backed Yes | 7c | 800$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…a969backed Yes | 8c | 771.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 5c | 720.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a4…58cfbacked Yes | 7c | 701.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…8ee8backed Yes | 5c | 701.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…8164backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 533.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 505.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…c55dbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked Yes | 7c | 430$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Yes | 5c | 403.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…5c10backed Yes | 6c | 399.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 5c | 365.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 8c | 357$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 6c | 343.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 12c | 341.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 19c | 322.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…791fbacked Yes | 6c | 319.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 294.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856d…3923backed Yes | 11c | 270.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…8faabacked Yes | 10c | 259.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…01fdbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 9c | 223.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c33abacked Yes | 5c | 208.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 8c | 184.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2913…5a40backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189f…11cdbacked Yes | 8c | 153.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 17c | 118.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…e43fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…183cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…3685backed Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 30 2025 or later?this page
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 14 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 15 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 16 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 17 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 22 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 23 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 24 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 25 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 26 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 27 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 28 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 29 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.