AI · resolved market
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 17 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45932bc66b00af152e158b1f4c916d9f1e7639b5641c7e8c2a6901a7efa905a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $443,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $381,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $443,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 0c | 41,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +413.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa8…09b0backed Yes | 1c | 26,110$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 1c | 24,287$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.6 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 1c | 21,217$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.23 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 1c | 19,275$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.87 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…0ab8backed Yes | 1c | 17,511$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 11,130$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,387$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a46…67d4backed Yes | 3c | 8,798$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 8,430$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…9300backed Yes | 1c | 7,549$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…3283backed Yes | 0c | 6,563$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…31aabacked Yes | 2c | 5,671$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 5,319$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed Yes | 1c | 5,310$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…9b35backed Yes | 1c | 4,901$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,415$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 0c | 3,772$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 4c | 3,261$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…96f3backed Yes | 2c | 2,988$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 2c | 2,432$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb055…df52backed Yes | 3c | 2,368$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 1c | 2,188$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…8143backed Yes | 1c | 2,132$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 1c | 1,861$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed Yes | 1c | 1,638$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…bdbabacked Yes | 1c | 1,619$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,197$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5d…9593backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 5c | 998.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…1360backed Yes | 7c | 887.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 1c | 848.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 636.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…adf1backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 3c | 487.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…9ea6backed Yes | 3c | 349.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 5c | 289.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 17 2025?this page
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 14 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 15 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 16 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 22 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 23 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 24 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 25 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 26 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 27 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 28 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 29 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 30 2025 or later?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.