TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$474,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$309,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $474,679 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca67…b50cbacked Yes3c35,356$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.2970%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8df…dce7backed Yes1c21,252$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.33520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes1c15,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+413.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes7c14,596$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.162560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c5c…1412backed Yes3c13,397$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.89616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-66%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes18c10,589$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.481216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-76.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes1c10,300$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.31315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-77%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x568b…b578backed Yes7c10,187$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeeb…645fbacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes5c9,117$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.637219.4%14 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c8,679$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.72580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes11c7,930$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.722416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes10c6,474$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.682429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa8…09b0backed Yes5c5,642$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.4990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b50…e262backed Yes19c5,245$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f9a…c495backed Yes5c5,154$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.08633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes2c5,126$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.021330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+181.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes10c5,118$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-78.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes23c5,000$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.23757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes22c4,933$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.821926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae9d…ba35backed Yes1c4,740$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45a7…fdb3backed Yes8c4,604$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.38200%0 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes3c4,282$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.463514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes5c4,247$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.322821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-59.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c4,126$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2261,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes3c4,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…309cbacked Yes1c3,947$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes4c3,545$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.097636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes5c3,447$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.257238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3c5…b393backed Yes36c3,290$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.34850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc3…8dfbbacked Yes7c3,258$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.66933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4755…6d6cbacked Yes6c3,180$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb607…0c75backed Yes10c3,125$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-57.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes1c3,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Yes1c2,884$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.590%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x980a…8ccbbacked Yes5c2,852$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.661414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-73.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed Yes1c2,400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.62420.8%5 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfa7…e0afbacked Yes4c2,368$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf60d…ad82backed Yes4c2,346$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8360%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9096…5984backed Yes2c2,300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.680%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes4c2,175$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.64254%1 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2171…924bbacked Yes7c2,152$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00dc…6ab8backed Yes3c2,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c1,985$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1457426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd0…445cbacked Yes5c1,902$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8280%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes23c1,888$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.864050%20 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Yes25c1,850$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.311030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes6c1,792$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.19397.7%3 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-89.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes4c1,716$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.471118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c6d…957bbacked Yes4c1,692$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1725…c0eebacked Yes17c1,512$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e12…1c24backed Yes7c1,500$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.56933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes3c1,500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.312033.3%40 W · 80 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2e7…40c2backed Yes4c1,400$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes4c1,400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.52714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes4c1,400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.07520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-73%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb5…6c52backed Yes4c1,397$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c1,344$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.3940712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes7c1,328$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.192638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ace…611dbacked Yes2c1,312$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x025a…b035backed Yes8c1,295$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-82.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes6c1,268$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.52170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes12c1,260$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2280%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes8c1,209$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef9…7033backed Yes2c1,204$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca5…7232backed Yes1c1,152$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed Yes5c1,146$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.747139.4%28 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ed…6dbabacked Yes12c1,111$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.83128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick37cpaid-89.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes5c1,102$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.891735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-44.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb317…35febacked Yes6c1,078$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed No76c1,046$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.141729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…c7b4backed Yes6c1,033$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed Yes9c1,026$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.361833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc6…ae83backed Yes5c1,012$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x367b…7e9cbacked Yes16c999.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Yes6c910.84$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.670%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes3c891.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.62728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb055…df52backed Yes10c859.03$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab72…b70dbacked Yes4c816.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-77.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ea…d193backed Yes8c802.64$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes6c800$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-71.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1468…9da0backed Yes2c781.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes4c779.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.421513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-79.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes4c775$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x636f…02c5backed Yes5c738.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4512…c4a9backed Yes1c720$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.06425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a6…1528backed Yes6c695.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4670%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xade7…78c1backed Yes6c673.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ab…25dbbacked Yes3c669.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.62110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e30…64bdbacked Yes5c659.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb795…b1f5backed Yes12c628.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d1…4903backed Yes15c600$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ee…886fbacked Yes14c599.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e2c2backed Yes10c596.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-86.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6782…91d0backed Yes3c587.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a9…de35backed Yes7c550.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea3…b03ebacked Yes4c547.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa71…1bcbbacked Yes5c543.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Yes10c541.48$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.615648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.