TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 23 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$276,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,282 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3238…1521backed Yes0c19,879$40 inLost-$39.76140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c13,952$15 inLost-$14.76821.2%1 W · 81 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes0c13,000$39 inLost-$38.531010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca67…b50cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes0c7,601$30 inLost-$30.41290%0 W · 29 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c6,653$19 inLost-$18.841,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes0c6,207$26 inLost-$25.762560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1a0…93a9backed Yes0c5,791$18 inLost-$18.2480%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0dc…791fbacked Yes1c5,080$40 inLost-$40911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-85.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc6…ae83backed Yes1c5,007$30 inLost-$30140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ab…25dbbacked Yes0c3,217$10 inLost-$10.3110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7199…96cebacked Yes1c3,115$30 inLost-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e2c2backed Yes1c2,948$25 inLost-$251010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-86.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd39…1184backed Yes1c2,520$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa24f…593dbacked Yes1c1,534$18 inLost-$1860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f4…b6dcbacked Yes8c246.8$20 inLost-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-76.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93f9…e350backed No80c41.82$33 inWon+$8.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.