AI · resolved market
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 22 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcaae4f0ba7d638dc5f9234c950a41b20af3f3c41dc1b6648121afb573d460d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $415,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $297,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $415,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 23,545$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.54 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…b50cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,494$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…445cbacked Yes | 1c | 18,858$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 1c | 18,297$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.66 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 17,104$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.37 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…cfe2backed Yes | 2c | 15,986$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed Yes | 4c | 14,378$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 1c | 8,500$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed Yes | 2c | 7,518$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.73 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 6,415$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…876bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,941$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af1…3945backed Yes | 1c | 5,626$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…e967backed Yes | 1c | 5,580$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 5,308$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,255$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.85 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,095$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…4c9abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,675$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…a883backed Yes | 1c | 4,096$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed Yes | 1c | 3,886$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…39f0backed Yes | 3c | 3,870$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fee…3e35backed Yes | 1c | 3,816$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a6…dea2backed Yes | 1c | 3,787$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…93a9backed Yes | 0c | 3,639$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,506$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 0c | 3,465$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…3344backed Yes | 5c | 3,210$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 1c | 3,142$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…a969backed Yes | 3c | 2,961$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb055…df52backed Yes | 3c | 2,675$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…4c84backed Yes | 22c | 2,592$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…59f0backed Yes | 4c | 2,476$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed Yes | 1c | 2,472$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 1c | 2,469$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 1c | 2,332$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…a8fcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,244$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…ae83backed Yes | 1c | 2,221$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…77c9backed Yes | 2c | 2,124$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…c312backed Yes | 2c | 1,946$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…ff58backed Yes | 1c | 1,845$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd39…1184backed Yes | 1c | 1,791$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…9085backed Yes | 1c | 1,685$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…07d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,682$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…78c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,502$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c07…7d26backed Yes | 1c | 1,475$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 1,472$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…21f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,345$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…3685backed Yes | 1c | 1,341$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…791fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,286$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8dc…ecc1backed Yes | 3c | 1,256$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,158$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cb…2b12backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…9c58backed Yes | 2c | 1,088$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…1af9backed Yes | 2c | 1,034$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…183cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,029$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d1…4903backed Yes | 2c | 1,020$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…5fa3backed Yes | 1c | 999.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…e43fbacked Yes | 2c | 916.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…5442backed Yes | 2c | 835.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 2c | 684.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 5c | 604.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 3c | 560.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…cb91backed Yes | 2c | 555.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb317…35febacked Yes | 3c | 546.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…9979backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…d193backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…a23ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b1…8dbcbacked Yes | 5c | 439.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6188…c38fbacked Yes | 8c | 401.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…63babacked Yes | 5c | 381.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…b6dcbacked Yes | 9c | 227.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…e350backed No | 80c | 74.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 22 2025?this page
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 14 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 15 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 16 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 17 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 23 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 24 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 25 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 26 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 27 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 28 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 29 2025?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 30 2025 or later?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.