Middle East · resolved market
Odds of Khamenei out by January 31 over 30% on Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ba362ad9bb255f58d38538393069a505946dc616f770bec71ca79c5e959c85e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1842…0849backed Yes | 1c | 23,552$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…29c4backed Yes | 10c | 12,164$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.85 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 76c | 8,798$6,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.76 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 17c | 7,167$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.33 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…638dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,510$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 16c | 5,330$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.88 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0573…0099backed Yes | 0c | 3,767$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3307…375cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,521$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa612…19b9backed Yes | 31c | 3,344$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 21c | 2,653$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.2 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…fe2dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,650$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…06fbbacked Yes | 20c | 2,405$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7184…7703backed Yes | 34c | 1,738$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 10c | 1,581$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.33 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…6e44backed Yes | 13c | 1,512$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 73c | 1,496$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.79 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 25c | 1,417$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.63 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 78c | 1,364$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.66 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 1,336$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.52 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…2459backed Yes | 34c | 1,175$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,149$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 8c | 999.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -11.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 77c | 876.79$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.65 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…f1afbacked Yes | 12c | 839.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 828.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 8c | 823.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 807.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…0661backed Yes | 27c | 760.18$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…14d0backed Yes | 27c | 745.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8153backed Yes | 26c | 706$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 22c | 703.47$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.57 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…4b5bbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 11c | 627.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 73c | 607.13$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.92 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…36b8backed Yes | 30c | 600$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…9424backed Yes | 34c | 591.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…adc7backed Yes | 34c | 590.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ea…9849backed Yes | 26c | 572.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9d…f6d0backed Yes | 9c | 541.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 27c | 540$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d8…2f04backed Yes | 33c | 474.55$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa302…b9a0backed Yes | 6c | 454.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…df24backed Yes | 28c | 419.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…8732backed Yes | 18c | 417.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 10c | 409.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 74c | 405$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…be50backed Yes | 27c | 401.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4808…6889backed Yes | 5c | 400.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…bd62backed Yes | 26c | 398.46$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…f9ecbacked Yes | 31c | 388.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb301…a931backed Yes | 25c | 369.06$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed80…be92backed Yes | 29c | 367.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 324.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed Yes | 12c | 323.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 13c | 321.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 12c | 316.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 304.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b01…61aabacked Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed No | 74c | 296$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +149%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 292.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked No | 76c | 288.35$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde61…b063backed Yes | 9c | 262.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…b57cbacked Yes | 6c | 251.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3378…25fbbacked Yes | 13c | 244$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee58…996cbacked Yes | 15c | 242.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa20…8ff1backed Yes | 22c | 229.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 76c | 227.16$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…a25ebacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 27c | 197$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +207.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed No | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…bec3backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…f53dbacked Yes | 27c | 186.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…31d7backed No | 79c | 183.84$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 29c | 180$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0b…26edbacked Yes | 24c | 178.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 175.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 174.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x892f…a6b0backed Yes | 24c | 168.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed Yes | 27c | 167$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…6604backed Yes | 28c | 160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…a842backed Yes | 26c | 155.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…9e4abacked Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed Yes | 14c | 138$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…3bafbacked Yes | 11c | 131.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…2e33backed Yes | 32c | 124.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 74c | 123.84$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…79efbacked No | 79c | 123$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 78c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a8…10c4backed Yes | 23c | 117.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 22c | 110.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 75c | 110.23$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Yes | 22c | 103.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…4c7dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.