TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Odds of Khamenei out by January 31 over 30% on Sunday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$192,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$206,451

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,367 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1842…0849backed Yes1c23,552$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb43c…29c4backed Yes10c12,164$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.8590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked No76c8,798$6,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,127.763652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes17c7,167$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.337929.1%23 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe253…638dbacked Yes0c5,510$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes16c5,330$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.8845843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0573…0099backed Yes0c3,767$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3307…375cbacked Yes9c3,521$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.56714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa612…19b9backed Yes31c3,344$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes21c3,000$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6154247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes21c2,653$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.213823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaff…fe2dbacked Yes0c2,650$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6150%0 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cbc…06fbbacked Yes20c2,405$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.91425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7184…7703backed Yes34c1,738$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes10c1,581$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.336011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f7…6e44backed Yes13c1,512$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.570%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No73c1,496$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.7948923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes25c1,417$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.637413.5%10 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No78c1,364$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.6610743%46 W · 61 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c1,336$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.5289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ebf…2459backed Yes34c1,175$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.54540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes3c1,149$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0611816.1%19 W · 99 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes8c999.73$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.987820.5%16 W · 62 L-11.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-54.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed No77c876.79$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.656462.5%40 W · 24 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x674b…f1afbacked Yes12c839.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes9c828.47$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.82384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes8c823.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7016417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c807.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.971,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee6…0661backed Yes27c760.18$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.89616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f76…14d0backed Yes27c745.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc758…8153backed Yes26c706$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes22c703.47$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.5714129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5045…4b5bbacked Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100170%0 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes11c627.85$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4613246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No73c607.13$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.925745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xffc7…36b8backed Yes30c600$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.4825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed No73c600$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1622437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+107.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x177e…9424backed Yes34c591.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-65.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd257…adc7backed Yes34c590.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-52.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ea…9849backed Yes26c572.31$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9d…f6d0backed Yes9c541.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.18520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes27c540$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.82334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1155933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22d8…2f04backed Yes33c474.55$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.12520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa302…b9a0backed Yes6c454.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.381241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11f8…df24backed Yes28c419.58$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c5…8732backed Yes18c417.61$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.53938.5%15 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+69.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes10c409.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.41387.9%3 W · 35 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-60.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked No74c405$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.32552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed Yes27c401.1$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4808…6889backed Yes5c400.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…bd62backed Yes26c398.46$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.73119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-64.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b8…f9ecbacked Yes31c388.7$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb301…a931backed Yes25c369.06$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.17540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed80…be92backed Yes29c367.31$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.12560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+39.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes10c324.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.217135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b5…9975backed Yes12c323.67$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.351741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes13c321.21$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.83965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed Yes12c316.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.512035%7 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes10c304.22$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.91430.7%1 W · 142 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-92.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b01…61aabacked Yes9c300$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9498…d950backed No74c296$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.961250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+149%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes11c292.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0526138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed81…82eebacked No76c288.35$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.771723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde61…b063backed Yes9c262.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked No78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.412564%16 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a2…b57cbacked Yes6c251.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3378…25fbbacked Yes13c244$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee58…996cbacked Yes15c242.47$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.37540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa20…8ff1backed Yes22c229.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No76c227.16$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5913342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebe…a25ebacked Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes34c200$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.455440.7%22 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes27c197$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.831442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+207.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63b4…7e30backed No77c194.81$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.813630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb1…bec3backed Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fe…f53dbacked Yes27c186.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9440%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5364…31d7backed No79c183.84$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.211656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Yes29c180$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a0b…26edbacked Yes24c178.14$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes11c175.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1736626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes10c174.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.414195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x892f…a6b0backed Yes24c168.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c22…50e1backed Yes27c167$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.091241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6780…6604backed Yes28c160$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd10f…a842backed Yes26c155.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca39…9e4abacked Yes11c150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27af…6ec8backed Yes14c138$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.27862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52e9…3bafbacked Yes11c131.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7786…2e33backed Yes32c124.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-79.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed No74c123.84$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa261…79efbacked No79c123$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.83933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No78c120$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.616447.6%78 W · 86 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36a8…10c4backed Yes23c117.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes22c110.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7814036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No75c110.23$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5640939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c77…6e76backed Yes22c103.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.691330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebc…4c7dbacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.