World Politics · resolved market
Will Ciprian Ciucu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ababbf43cff90618b3cb3b2f80155b93ae9c3d7c54bcec264546a2187090da7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 0c | 19,825$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 4c | 5,167$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.03 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 27c | 2,660$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…bbf2backed Yes | 34c | 1,782$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 15c | 1,350$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,251$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.77 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…78c9backed Yes | 31c | 969.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…c380backed Yes | 27c | 963.89$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.27 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…4a76backed Yes | 58c | 950.46$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 4c | 646.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 77c | 627.66$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.61 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 24c | 545.94$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.19 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…af79backed Yes | 30c | 506.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c6…ecd4backed Yes | 30c | 433$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Yes | 23c | 299.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 280.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 264.37$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 27c | 260$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 22c | 256$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 21c | 254.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 75c | 226.97$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 210.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…8f58backed Yes | 24c | 209.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…e846backed Yes | 29c | 190$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…13e6backed Yes | 17c | 168$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…5399backed Yes | 30c | 166.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +654.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…98b3backed Yes | 20c | 149.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 33c | 124.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 9c | 119.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 78c | 118.27$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 32c | 109.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…ee39backed Yes | 28c | 104$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 100.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 72c | 100.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…00fbbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…a8d5backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…09acbacked Yes | 28c | 80.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…4c7abacked Yes | 34c | 73.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 76c | 60.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 74c | 60.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 74c | 57.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 54.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…6f42backed No | 75c | 30.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 67c | 29.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83cf…1247backed No | 75c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…41b4backed No | 69c | 28.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…e335backed No | 74c | 25.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 73c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ciprian Ciucu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?this page
- Will Ana-Maria Ciceală finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?Yes won
- Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?No won
- Will Daniel Baluta finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?No won
- Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?No won
- Will Vlad Voiculescu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.