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World Politics · resolved market

Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ce2…e868backed Yes9c18,364$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.831216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-69.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x532f…4708backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…6a01backed Yes4c3,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes3c2,603$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.514634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eee…5841backed Yes12c2,558$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.373138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes8c2,404$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.243243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc14e…3a06backed Yes4c2,402$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe923…0779backed Yes9c2,141$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes9c1,941$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.3511017.3%19 W · 91 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c24…e1afbacked Yes1c1,512$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.122528%7 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+172.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes2c1,512$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.683315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6757…5399backed Yes6c1,409$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+654.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c1,380$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.036883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,211$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.531344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1128434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes8c936$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0831534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f4…9eeabacked Yes11c930.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c751.05$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.331676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd71…2a49backed Yes3c722.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b90…da1cbacked Yes17c568.25$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes17c561.85$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1410344.7%46 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3b8…3553backed Yes10c557.29$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+41.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d14…c06dbacked Yes2c550$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1180%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c503.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.071,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcef9…4e2bbacked Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dff…2240backed Yes12c481.96$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…f920backed Yes5c468.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes11c444$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.844143.9%18 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05a0…22babacked Yes8c425.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-81.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes8c404.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.827017.1%12 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes6c303.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.964766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.510741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3314632.2%47 W · 99 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes7c299.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x572d…292abacked Yes8c267.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.951136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+38.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x383a…c380backed Yes17c236.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5ca…bd97backed Yes22c231.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54f5…d9c7backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203420.6%7 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe17…3381backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes5c197.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.744922.4%11 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdf1…bf0dbacked Yes21c194$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31494.7%7 W · 142 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf1e…2577backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20875%6 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+78.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes19c64.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9537117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1020051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3f…a4fdbacked Yes30c48.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.