AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b21d21e6b0f521db9e28c388d5f38bb47f369fdf9565bd90b375c7d4bc24578
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 16,756$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.71 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 13c | 8,208$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.87 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 49c | 4,212$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 2,942$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,222$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde31…4f59backed Yes | 9c | 1,498$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,338$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.08 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 7c | 1,060$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 2c | 995.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b88…19c8backed Yes | 3c | 897.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 6c | 893.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…84c7backed Yes | 7c | 853.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c4…89bdbacked Yes | 25c | 817.59$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.03 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 10c | 764.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 9c | 751.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 22c | 594.74$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.07 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe5…e747backed Yes | 10c | 582.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 4c | 539.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 27c | 537$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.24 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 428.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7937backed Yes | 7c | 414.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 5c | 391.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 5c | 315.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 74c | 312.33$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…2bd9backed Yes | 6c | 302.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…61d6backed Yes | 35c | 282.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…facfbacked Yes | 7c | 278.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa4…04f2backed Yes | 7c | 275.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 244$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…5e16backed Yes | 7c | 235.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 6c | 199.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…bea0backed No | 73c | 145.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…1427backed Yes | 36c | 139.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 10c | 133.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…4d3bbacked Yes | 10c | 123.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 72c | 113.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 65c | 73.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 52.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed No | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 79c | 13.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on October 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on October 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on October 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on October 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.