Earnings · resolved market
Will ETSY (ETSY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eab6e959abfd65beccb5277319249f04a3f2ca3e7e433fdae789a8cca9c1075
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 24c | 346$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…2adabacked Yes | 71c | 317.54$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 308.61$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 38c | 282.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.41 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 266.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 40c | 222.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f21…9faabacked No | 29c | 209$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 27c | 188.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…0af5backed No | 28c | 160.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…2949backed Yes | 63c | 158.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 147.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…9f02backed No | 25c | 128.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…9577backed Yes | 78c | 127.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 80c | 125.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…c0f2backed Yes | 76c | 121$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed No | 28c | 116.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 110.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312e…613ebacked Yes | 77c | 108.12$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 26c | 100.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 74c | 96.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 26c | 85.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…c2a3backed Yes | 74c | 82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5447…dc06backed Yes | 69c | 80.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked No | 28c | 75.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked No | 28c | 72.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a9…3caebacked No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5967…750dbacked Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 52.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…0619backed No | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 32c | 51.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a7c1backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 37c | 49.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed Yes | 78c | 47.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 45.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9953…270fbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…a251backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b8…1133backed Yes | 72c | 38.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 38c | 38.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…6149backed Yes | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked Yes | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…b34bbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…34cdbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 62c | 24.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c8…9617backed Yes | 60c | 24.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759e…5fd6backed Yes | 78c | 22.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked Yes | 75c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…43ebbacked Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…781dbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cc…686dbacked Yes | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…4e8cbacked Yes | 62c | 16.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…b46ebacked Yes | 75c | 13.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.