Earnings · resolved market
Will Monster Beverage (MNST) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1ccccc9c62835250cd3a676fb4c821549366c8acb2c31faab0b4c8aa2272911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 24c | 1,894$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.84 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 23c | 1,135$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.9 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 72c | 719.26$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.19 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes | 76c | 672.82$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.3 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 65c | 467.27$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.78 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 9c | 405.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.35 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…642cbacked Yes | 69c | 400$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa294…52eabacked Yes | 78c | 378.33$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.28 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 63c | 301.21$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.53 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 278.41$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.06 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 25c | 237.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.53 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 228$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.55 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…972dbacked Yes | 70c | 221.12$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 34c | 207.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.27 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 13c | 175.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.5 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 138.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.75 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…ad59backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…5443backed Yes | 75c | 132$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 33c | 120.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 24c | 118.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 100.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…9df1backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 40c | 93.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 14c | 92.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +592.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…7601backed Yes | 69c | 70.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 67.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 39c | 64.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 71c | 62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…6dd5backed No | 52c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…c0c2backed Yes | 48c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…89a4backed No | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed Yes | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…1b4fbacked Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5967…750dbacked Yes | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 37c | 44.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…9013backed Yes | 72c | 41.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 78c | 40.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3722…1f0abacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…1f9fbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe771…984dbacked Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed No | 37c | 39.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…c691backed Yes | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 56c | 37.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…98eebacked Yes | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 31c | 34.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed Yes | 64c | 31.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…e333backed Yes | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes | 47c | 31.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…84e8backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…dac7backed No | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4123backed Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2be…e9ecbacked Yes | 69c | 21.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 69c | 15.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.