TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
K27of 3DMAX, K27
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$369,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$390,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $369,134 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 282 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed K2741c104,259$43,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,020.912348.8%60 W · 63 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89eb…cff9backed 3DMAX59c42,809$25,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,360.4636450.3%183 W · 181 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked 3DMAX58c27,579$15,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,995.9114145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked 3DMAX58c25,000$14,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,50076058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed K2765c24,000$15,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,400.56160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed 3DMAX35c23,559$8,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,245.5225355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed 3DMAX58c19,177$11,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,051.067245.8%33 W · 39 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed 3DMAX37c16,216$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00033359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked K2743c15,818$6,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,988.015,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed 3DMAX34c14,607$4,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,966.382944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed K2742c13,356$5,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,746.6542142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed K2742c7,869$3,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,561.962,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa526…c9f9backed 3DMAX40c7,339$2,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,919.323540%14 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked 3DMAX58c6,000$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,464.9959839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8b5abacked K2743c5,823$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,322.891428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-42.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked 3DMAX58c5,200$3,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,010.9436453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 3DMAX34c5,197$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.986,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked K2766c4,801$3,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.217,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked 3DMAX47c4,305$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,041.2992456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked K2770c4,155$2,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.3163157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed 3DMAX57c4,003$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,282.711758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed K2743c3,839$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,205.4638841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked K2743c3,589$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.631,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3878…1ab8backed 3DMAX33c3,467$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.9917840.4%72 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed 3DMAX57c3,377$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.8317737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed 3DMAX56c3,210$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.6975450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed 3DMAX59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7709550.5%48 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed K2761c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17064552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked K2741c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.978052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed 3DMAX57c2,921$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.9521945.7%100 W · 119 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc28f…6193backed 3DMAX59c2,600$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53410956.9%62 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed 3DMAX59c2,556$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked K2741c2,526$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.4727452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked K2766c2,475$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.55,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed K2761c2,049$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.772,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed 3DMAX59c2,033$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.2168753.9%370 W · 317 L-21.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 3DMAX42c2,014$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.075,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed 3DMAX37c2,005$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.062,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed K2754c2,004$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.472,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed 3DMAX57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14018846.3%87 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked 3DMAX38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7607047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed K2757c1,870$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.941,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed 3DMAX54c1,771$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.6725845.7%118 W · 140 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked 3DMAX35c1,730$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.972,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed K2750c1,726$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.7754732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed 3DMAX58c1,724$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020946.9%98 W · 111 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed 3DMAX59c1,701$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.3660853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed K2742c1,664$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.5146555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed K2755c1,639$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.512,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ec…f538backed K2744c1,560$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.111154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked K2762c1,467$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.3532552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3116…b30dbacked 3DMAX57c1,462$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.395455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed K2758c1,392$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.834,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked 3DMAX36c1,363$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.12,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x060d…d746backed 3DMAX60c1,297$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.075354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed K2742c1,250$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72559755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed K2741c1,220$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.7955845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked 3DMAX33c1,158$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.423,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked K2752c1,093$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.222,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe601…84ecbacked 3DMAX52c1,090$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.9848845.7%223 W · 265 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked 3DMAX37c1,076$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.381,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc57…1d94backed 3DMAX38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed K2753c1,029$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.2762248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…13dabacked 3DMAX56c1,022$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.599732%31 W · 66 L-11.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed 3DMAX37c1,022$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.541,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked K2763c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3703,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed 3DMAX57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57037557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed 3DMAX34c996.79$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.1775438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked 3DMAX57c976.26$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.822645.1%102 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed K2742c946.03$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.032,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed K2756c923.89$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.712,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked K2757c850.83$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.8652837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked 3DMAX23c822.31$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.544,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked K2770c788.92$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2911758.1%68 W · 49 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked K2742c767.09$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.9744747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked K2747c764$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.810438.5%40 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed 3DMAX58c750$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43522943.7%100 W · 129 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa102…6b5bbacked 3DMAX54c750$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.93825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-51.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed 3DMAX45c743.17$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.1925634.4%88 W · 168 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed 3DMAX57c700.88$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.548240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b3…4a99backed 3DMAX50c659.68$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33029731%92 W · 205 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed K2741c626.99$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.935,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed 3DMAX59c593.22$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked K2764c580$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.11,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x765a…5ce4backed K2743c580$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.614949%73 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked K2763c577.04$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.2436440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked 3DMAX51c569.75$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29019546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed K2761c560.94$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.954,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked 3DMAX50c550$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27517240.1%69 W · 103 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed K2756c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7121346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked 3DMAX37c535.14$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19826546.8%124 W · 141 L-18.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac0c…739cbacked 3DMAX45c513.92$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23366034.1%225 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed 3DMAX59c508.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30096545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed K2762c508.29$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.243336.4%12 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed K2743c499.95$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.9785851.6%443 W · 415 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed 3DMAX60c496.67$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29822460.7%136 W · 88 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe7…ca35backed 3DMAX58c492.38$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.583756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef1d…3080backed K2764c483.94$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.2213258.3%77 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed K2741c471.66$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.9855941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed K2743c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.1231761.2%194 W · 123 L+22.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.