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Ukraine · resolved market

Will France join the Board of Peace?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,731

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,283 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb04b…a1ebbacked Yes14c4,309$602 inLost-$602.450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes5c2,444$113 inLost-$112.8225311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c1,804$46 inLost-$45.675722.8%13 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3da1…a920backed Yes2c1,720$28 inLost-$27.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c1,574$28 inLost-$28.2414920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes5c1,197$59 inLost-$59.394719.1%9 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72c…a10fbacked Yes3c1,137$38 inLost-$38.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fe…e2a4backed Yes4c1,070$42 inLost-$41.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c999.99$15 inLost-$1515217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68ab…8d7cbacked Yes12c882.25$110 inLost-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes17c870.16$150 inLost-$150140%0 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xae47…eba4backed Yes17c867.01$148 inLost-$14810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes2c744.98$16 inLost-$15.865810.3%6 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes4c646.35$27 inLost-$27.112615.4%4 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes6c601.54$37 inLost-$36.74611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c550.54$38 inLost-$37.941302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes8c544.55$41 inLost-$41.19510%0 W · 51 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c513.11$15 inLost-$15.245327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes17c485.15$84 inLost-$84.281926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes4c460.28$20 inLost-$19.82190%0 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c460.06$28 inLost-$28.031432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes4c452.57$20 inLost-$19.95541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes2c450$11 inLost-$10.860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes3c444$13 inLost-$13.328641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes15c400$60 inLost-$59.822722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes5c399.98$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c365.25$11 inLost-$10.511039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…66a4backed Yes3c317.56$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c306.92$16 inLost-$16.221074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes18c300$53 inLost-$53.353627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes4c300$13 inLost-$131010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes6c299.99$19 inLost-$19.1340%0 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes13c265.95$34 inLost-$34.212218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes11c265.95$29 inLost-$29.252544%11 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+68.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…7afabacked Yes7c200$14 inLost-$13.940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x769c…6c64backed No78c193.39$150 inWon+$43.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff0…5274backed Yes11c186$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed Yes10c176.06$17 inLost-$17.212035%7 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dee…fe51backed Yes13c149.41$20 inLost-$2080%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes20c122$25 inLost-$24.782839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost-$19.16205%1 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick27cpaid-93.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes12c99.99$12 inLost-$128639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3141…552cbacked Yes13c87.45$12 inLost-$11.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c86…c427backed No54c20$11 inWon+$9.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.