TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Switzerland join the Board of Peace?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,169
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,504

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,169 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c1,292$33 inLost-$32.96704.3%3 W · 67 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c666.65$12 inLost-$11.6615217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes4c654.88$26 inLost-$25.8426835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8ff1…675ebacked Yes2c547.47$12 inLost-$12.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes4c450$17 inLost-$16.55810.3%6 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c429.54$14 inLost-$14.181039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes7c386.33$26 inLost-$26.325311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes5c316.07$15 inLost-$14.61190%0 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x597a…a541backed Yes5c268.63$12 inLost-$12.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x769c…6c64backed No80c251.41$200 inWon+$51.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0194…008dbacked Yes16c250.74$40 inLost-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes14c153.61$21 inLost-$20.7629416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x7eaf…1efdbacked Yes26c153.33$39 inLost-$39.3350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bdf…1b74backed No80c131.5$105 inWon+$26.36366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost-$205038%19 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost-$20205%1 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick27cpaid-93.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes17c75$13 inLost-$12.758510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e02…b473backed Yes29c68.97$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed No52c33$17 inWon+$15.841952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c33$16 inLost-$15.8441736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No64c28.06$18 inWon+$10.0610357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.