TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Italy join the Board of Peace?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$202,934
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$315,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,934 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5545…4c6cbacked Yes1c10,100$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes10c2,622$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.8625311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb04b…a1ebbacked Yes30c2,448$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.3450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes4c2,200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.741816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-53.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a27…db16backed Yes2c1,698$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…1b9dbacked Yes2c1,648$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes14c1,388$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.594719.1%9 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e4…70b0backed No69c1,164$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c837.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3715217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes2c727.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-81.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c719.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.025327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No74c702.39$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.12759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x063b…efbebacked Yes6c642.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a19…073dbacked Yes8c636.72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9c…9b0abacked Yes17c599.95$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc997…5184backed Yes20c575.53$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes11c545.09$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5417232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23d9…3a2ebacked Yes5c498.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-84.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…d896backed No75c497.06$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x732e…34fabacked Yes41c492.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes5c437.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.03535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes8c340.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes15c329.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f0d…336abacked No74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No63c283.44$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.147250%36 W · 36 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xecc1…5931backed Yes6c263.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c260.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.611039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No68c260.19$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.968936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca7…9bccbacked No74c257.42$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No79c255.43$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.883100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+185.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7eaf…1efdbacked Yes20c255.39$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bdb…b89abacked Yes7c244.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes17c244$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes27c207.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.122544%11 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+68.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4867…e1dcbacked Yes10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes22c199.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-78.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes10c196.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No69c193.54$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.915451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb750…211cbacked Yes6c164.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes7c157$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes23c154.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9629416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xe2a0…76ebbacked No77c146.7$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd648…2cfabacked Yes15c122.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1850…112cbacked Yes16c122.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes20c120.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.874734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed No71c116.66$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.381090%9 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick64cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes18c115.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.572015%3 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x845f…fe58backed Yes25c104.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe991…9969backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191010%1 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71af…dd01backed Yes24c99.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes23c99.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23205%1 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick27cpaid-93.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x427d…bd45backed Yes39c99.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb9…c6d2backed No78c96.28$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d13…666cbacked Yes20c95.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes18c82.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.483951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No78c82.21$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.213458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1add…924abacked Yes18c80.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4950%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bae…ec80backed Yes25c78.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa7…2e3cbacked Yes18c77.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7834…f823backed No73c75.81$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes21c65.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.73525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecd…2c00backed No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes19c56.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-45.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37d4…eb10backed No76c55.82$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf53a…bdb4backed No37c54.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+172.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e6…e903backed Yes19c52.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed No66c50.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.19728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…bd03backed Yes20c50.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f19…79efbacked No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55e2…0d8fbacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c49.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.374346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cc5…c35cbacked Yes38c47.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5b…b124backed No74c40.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9d…33c6backed No74c40.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No78c37.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.163759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea0…96febacked Yes36c30.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3735…4282backed No66c30.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.34475%33 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf7c…ff1ebacked No67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b20…d8fcbacked No68c29.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac3…6a0ebacked No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.033100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9388…c4d0backed No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a6…f3ccbacked No47c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.674100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+81.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed No64c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.