TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia join the Board of Peace?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$279,291
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$266,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,291 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 453 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf900…cd0cbacked No49c22,462$11,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,404.24425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes43c12,441$5,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,378.7140%0 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes20c11,052$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,203.9825311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1add…924abacked Yes61c10,989$6,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,739.6150%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf285…1b96backed Yes48c10,000$4,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,809.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39ff…4d30backed Yes1c9,169$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6276…2dd9backed No59c7,622$4,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,162.942100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+101.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No68c7,358$5,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.6824258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No67c5,303$3,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.541553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked No73c4,926$3,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.941040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Yes59c4,778$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,833333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed No54c4,007$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,830.881090%9 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick64cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No61c3,953$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,532.692560%15 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes15c3,577$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.035722.8%13 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No56c3,210$1,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No80c3,169$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.172040%8 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes26c2,981$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.3326835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x54e4…70b0backed No45c2,764$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes24c2,248$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.164719.1%9 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc443…bbdbbacked No62c2,121$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed Yes40c2,023$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.12250%11 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.64119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.37per pick47cpaid-80.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed No42c2,000$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.751952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe399…7dc1backed No50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf74e…dda4backed Yes44c1,961$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac7e…be9cbacked Yes12c1,844$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd613…76efbacked No63c1,810$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1690…8c4dbacked No66c1,743$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes22c1,729$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.126238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes33c1,631$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.418936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No47c1,616$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.0810651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb61d…74d2backed Yes62c1,581$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes43c1,574$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.4212937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No57c1,528$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.212272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb11e…6428backed Yes28c1,469$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes71c1,330$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f38…4ca5backed Yes13c1,303$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No40c1,217$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.1112927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes43c1,200$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.3123435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No70c1,142$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.141526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes65c1,106$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.263228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd7…7842backed No57c1,081$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.933100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes61c1,041$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked No50c1,033$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.27656.6%43 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e26…336cbacked Yes44c1,021$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.33666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc701…920ebacked Yes49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f0a…3b4bbacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x388a…e87cbacked No75c999.99$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef4c…22bebacked Yes29c999.97$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3e…281bbacked No41c984.62$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x019f…1152backed No51c968.96$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…ba02backed Yes46c954.19$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.31812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7e…8736backed No76c843$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No69c839.96$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.117243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes11c811.65$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.117232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No79c800$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x343d…cd2ebacked No70c769.99$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.65572.7%40 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+19.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9ee…cb04backed No76c759.74$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd4…b90abacked Yes34c746.81$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x171e…e046backed Yes47c697.32$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.49333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No53c680.25$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.526640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd359…d361backed Yes46c680$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.42714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-67.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No72c669$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.322857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No71c665.99$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.818641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked No52c664.41$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.921346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa04…66e7backed Yes22c659.59$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes68c643.14$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.6910812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No60c640.42$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.139429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes15c626$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.88711.5%10 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No34c619.85$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.295038%19 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5060…a780backed Yes13c609.62$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes42c601.59$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.12433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe3fe…f1e1backed Yes61c599.83$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.4950%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c587.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.261074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes34c584$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.56757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick24cpaid+193.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb830…eeeabacked Yes35c568.41$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No47c564.39$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.527250%36 W · 36 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfffe…4e6cbacked No60c547.31$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.334060%24 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes22c538.39$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.722540%10 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No41c533.89$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.9426318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c529.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.121432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab80…6253backed Yes53c524.55$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3f8…c86cbacked Yes50c513.31$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed No49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+93.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e33…8c8fbacked No61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes46c500$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2322751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed No64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x312b…cafebacked No48c495.68$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.511163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No61c491.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes25c490.72$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.674829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a56…530ebacked No51c490.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.23100%3 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+383.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No58c478$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.183650%18 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e3d…ff92backed Yes42c475.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.061442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes64c469.97$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb530…1c3ebacked Yes27c462.49$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No71c458.85$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.451154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b4…ec9cbacked No73c454.18$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes7c442.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.782740.7%11 W · 16 L+5.9wins+0.22per pick19cpaid+142.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x0a7b…4229backed No48c441.48$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.