Ukraine · resolved market
Will Germany join the Board of Peace?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9cc6a24e36517883718d548963e326a026678d43270a47afc908cab72e8162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x242a…b6a1backed Yes | 1c | 10,705$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…1955backed Yes | 1c | 10,700$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e8…ea21backed Yes | 1c | 7,102$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…be9cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,602$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…a1ebbacked Yes | 15c | 3,971$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 2,139$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,735$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…e299backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,479$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 9c | 1,355$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 1,301$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…4e63backed Yes | 3c | 816.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 12c | 800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d9…3a2ebacked Yes | 2c | 649.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 648.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 80c | 642.58$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.01 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked Yes | 16c | 631.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 574.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a7…0c0ebacked Yes | 4c | 565.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…552cbacked Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…924abacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 22c | 499.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 463.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 455.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 448.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 3c | 444$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 78c | 428.02$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8d…b0e1backed Yes | 13c | 408.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 14c | 369.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 277.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe421…503cbacked Yes | 9c | 265.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b78…f26dbacked Yes | 16c | 253.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…c0f4backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 223.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 6c | 219.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 210.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 183.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…fe51backed Yes | 12c | 161.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b473backed Yes | 13c | 155.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…5274backed Yes | 13c | 153.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 9c | 149.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…af9dbacked No | 80c | 148.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 10c | 145$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…6c64backed No | 74c | 135.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 14c | 130.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…64a1backed No | 79c | 126.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…41adbacked Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…fe24backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…dd01backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97e6…0952backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 13c | 98.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b4…11babacked Yes | 15c | 97.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 24c | 51.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0d…336abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…4a25backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…e963backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany join the Board of Peace?this page
- Will Brazil join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will China join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Denmark join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Finland join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will France join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Hungary join the Board of Peace?Yes won
- Will India join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Israel join the Board of Peace?Yes won
- Will Italy join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Norway join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Palestine join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Russia join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Spain join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Sweden join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Switzerland join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Turkiye join the Board of Peace?Yes won
- Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will the Netherlands join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will the U.K. join the Board of Peace?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.