Ukraine · resolved market
Will Brazil join the Board of Peace?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42c3476d23559c564668913c97d97b2811d9e1ad536575fac8091e4bcf29c9db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86f9…b2c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,860$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…871fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,760$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 978.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 4c | 647.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 15c | 556.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 4c | 506.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 16c | 347.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 11c | 310$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 11c | 283.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 12c | 255.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6359…b453backed Yes | 10c | 208.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34e…c0f4backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 6c | 199.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed Yes | 7c | 193.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 185.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…2184backed Yes | 9c | 174$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 15c | 169.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…aacfbacked Yes | 17c | 146.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 145.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed No | 80c | 136$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f25…4d4bbacked Yes | 9c | 125.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…a10fbacked Yes | 9c | 115.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…4675backed Yes | 11c | 113.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…d006backed Yes | 14c | 106.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 103.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…4730backed Yes | 10c | 97.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 80c | 37.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 58c | 36.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 79c | 14.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brazil join the Board of Peace?this page
- Will China join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Denmark join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Finland join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will France join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Germany join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Hungary join the Board of Peace?Yes won
- Will India join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Israel join the Board of Peace?Yes won
- Will Italy join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Norway join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Palestine join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Russia join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Spain join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Sweden join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Switzerland join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Turkiye join the Board of Peace?Yes won
- Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will the Netherlands join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will the U.K. join the Board of Peace?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.