TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Finland join the Board of Peace?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$577,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,074,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $577,983 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes9c2,033$181 inLost-$180.912615.4%4 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0b0…7bfdbacked Yes1c1,713$21 inLost-$20.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x165f…c71abacked Yes1c1,687$20 inLost-$20.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904b…7563backed Yes1c1,683$22 inLost-$21.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa558…d63abacked Yes1c1,680$22 inLost-$21.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44c…9e2abacked Yes1c1,668$20 inLost-$20.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf891…d2e5backed Yes1c1,662$17 inLost-$16.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…61a4backed Yes1c1,643$16 inLost-$16.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db9…46afbacked Yes1c1,631$18 inLost-$17.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa391…a592backed Yes1c1,624$21 inLost-$21.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba34…0f69backed Yes1c1,609$23 inLost-$22.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2734…aecdbacked Yes1c1,593$14 inLost-$14.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefb…8f20backed Yes1c1,587$17 inLost-$17.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa454…9015backed Yes1c1,539$20 inLost-$20.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e98…2e7bbacked Yes1c912.99$11 inLost-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c909.46$14 inLost-$14.0915217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afe…19a9backed Yes1c888.76$12 inLost-$11.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes3c659.97$22 inLost-$21.935810.3%6 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes4c601$27 inLost-$26.678733.3%29 W · 58 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes5c568.1$26 inLost-$26.4925311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes5c365.9$18 inLost-$18.181816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-53.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c310.38$14 inLost-$13.541039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fca…8eeebacked No68c295.94$200 inWon+$95.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes5c257.62$14 inLost-$13.74190%0 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes19c190.87$36 inLost-$36.0329416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf887…6b54backed Yes35c100$35 inLost-$3540%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost-$16205%1 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick27cpaid-93.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.