TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,592 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No4c5,326$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1965240.4%21 W · 31 L+6.1wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No14c4,352$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.3619011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes73c3,569$2,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.73616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-77.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No28c3,392$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.167540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No6c3,123$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4824315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No7c3,090$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9511850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked No10c2,312$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.781560%9 W · 6 L+4.8wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+180.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x126f…eeaabacked Yes74c2,287$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cad…d35cbacked No10c2,002$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe893…f2c0backed No27c1,521$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.17728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed No33c1,513$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c1,424$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.271,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc012…6180backed No28c1,396$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No16c1,211$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9918311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes64c1,190$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.787611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes71c936.85$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.554235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9722…5304backed Yes77c912.51$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.51475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No26c855$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.5540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+76.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc57…aa62backed Yes72c817.02$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No31c812.32$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.477330.1%22 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No13c800$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033844.7%17 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+105.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No4c674.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.219632.3%31 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes72c635.77$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.172055%11 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+89.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No13c598.64$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.136136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked No31c575.25$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.819041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x795a…b875backed No42c573.13$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24070%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes62c563.99$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.091241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No22c500.79$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.628257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No42c481.98$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.571957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a03…b226backed No27c462.88$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2633…8816backed Yes77c459.59$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.77366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No28c456.63$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.683813.2%5 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7c8…e4f7backed No29c451.46$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc040…d7dfbacked Yes66c423.01$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.66580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e1…b3c6backed No68c407.35$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.2930%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed No41c380.98$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.652147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No19c380.58$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8620418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No27c373.58$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5128828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes36c360.04$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.632528%7 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes70c357.24$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.527852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No59c338.45$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.991435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b6…7935backed No43c313.73$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No18c300$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1557426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed0c…5e23backed Yes68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+72%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x61f1…f11ebacked Yes69c290.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes33c284.16$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.394100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+493.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked No23c281.03$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.83323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick15cpaid-88.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdce3…82f1backed Yes66c259.96$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes67c254.48$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.172935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1dc…5460backed Yes72c250$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes64c238.59$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.12425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0b…29e9backed Yes42c230$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+81.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No30c215.39$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3725731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc057…6d70backed Yes23c213.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+326.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbef…4cd2backed No34c212.09$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a9…c917backed Yes21c211.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+369.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No36c210.49$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5921125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No30c201.22$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.672548%12 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6245738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked No22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-46.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x68d1…3c4dbacked No28c198.86$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.668150.6%41 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c195.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3440712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x26df…8211backed Yes70c179.65$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.84683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No31c178.9$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.662548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6183…3834backed No59c176.7$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.094032.5%13 W · 27 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x87a1…bdd4backed Yes71c171.3$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.26757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No16c160.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3120731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes69c158.83$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aba…af7cbacked Yes13c156.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.28728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid+27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes77c153.78$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.195735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa609…4de6backed Yes67c146.2$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No33c141.71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.468837.5%33 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ea…dd4ebacked Yes72c139.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.561376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick50cpaid+53.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes70c138.89$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1715615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x747b…f422backed Yes69c135.02$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f42…d8fdbacked Yes28c126.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.131833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea0…313bbacked No40c125.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No37c123.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.48551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe633…c0febacked No54c121.66$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.754934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes43c120.35$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+74.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd682…de74backed Yes56c120$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb08a…c850backed Yes71c120$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick65cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes67c110.4$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3947938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No23c110$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.314339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed No45c109.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No33c107.51$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7932228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9998…e858backed Yes11c105.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.72254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+70.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes50c105$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.551957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+87.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1862…9f15backed No24c104.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92a1…6535backed Yes55c102.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad58…cadabacked Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-56%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7792…3129backed No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-43.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e29…b9b4backed No31c95.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No33c93.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.35648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x898a…16a0backed No75c90$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf86…f3e9backed Yes58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes73c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2412639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.