TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Mavericks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Rockets, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,449,989
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,543,807

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,449,989 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 672 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Mavericks26c188,279$48,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139,326.1848343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Rockets74c160,110$118,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118,481.5313248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Mavericks26c71,896$18,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,203.387941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Rockets74c54,033$40,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,056.352,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Rockets28c52,724$14,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,527.743,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rockets39c37,990$14,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,886.235,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Rockets5c37,668$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,842.481,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets37c33,035$12,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,063.38,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Rockets26c32,523$8,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,612.431,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Rockets8c26,221$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,106.225925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Mavericks25c23,000$5,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,249.6674748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf43d…1e75backed Rockets0c20,230$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.574325.6%11 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mavericks54c19,978$10,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,130.641,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rockets75c17,723$13,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,218.222,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Rockets12c16,170$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.262,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef8…48aabacked Rockets0c15,680$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Mavericks26c14,970$3,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,127.6547028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets74c14,823$10,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,902.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Rockets68c13,411$9,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,181.7727865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Rockets4c13,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5281,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks53c12,804$6,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,070.721,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Rockets10c12,060$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.8534227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Mavericks27c11,712$3,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,549.5424831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Mavericks26c11,110$2,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,221.3636741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5449…3932backed Mavericks29c11,054$3,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,828.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Rockets49c9,183$4,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,515.7927251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Rockets3c8,889$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.6750347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd95…c1aebacked Rockets16c8,442$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.71127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-64.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Rockets73c8,267$6,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,034.631,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Rockets73c8,130$5,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,934.9471547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Rockets6c7,711$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.971,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Rockets6c6,570$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.1737944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Rockets66c6,420$4,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,249.073,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Rockets74c6,373$4,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,716.021,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Rockets11c6,365$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.4981529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Mavericks26c6,000$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,449.9221538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Rockets51c5,925$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00021944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Mavericks50c5,496$2,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,771.741,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Mavericks27c5,048$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,685.0428439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Rockets5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Rockets0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1527917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Rockets74c5,000$3,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,679.9475347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Rockets75c4,750$3,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,562.55369.8%37 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Mavericks58c4,668$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,942.453,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Rockets75c4,444$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,33376746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Rockets17c4,333$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.49640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Mavericks28c4,036$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.1450838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Rockets73c4,000$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,919.9814243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Mavericks25c3,998$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,998.4815247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Mavericks31c3,994$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,744.2622035.5%78 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Rockets30c3,373$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Rockets22c3,323$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.639744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b9…27d0backed Mavericks54c3,278$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.962171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Rockets0c3,265$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.811,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Mavericks26c3,200$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3761,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Mavericks26c3,157$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,334.7825546.7%119 W · 136 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Rockets1c3,101$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7164517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Rockets1c3,080$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.518820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Rockets47c3,000$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.991,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c8…53a9backed Mavericks33c2,989$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.315046%23 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Rockets51c2,930$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.138434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Rockets73c2,920$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.773959%23 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid+4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53b0…4daabacked Rockets7c2,849$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008448.8%41 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x820f…0ddcbacked Rockets75c2,800$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1004656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdac…c44bbacked Mavericks43c2,762$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.54580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+73.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Rockets74c2,760$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.811,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Mavericks26c2,737$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.4348132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb842…9ee1backed Rockets75c2,727$2,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4138…6a24backed Rockets74c2,700$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.22per pick66cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc935…2579backed Mavericks31c2,630$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.596872.1%49 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets20c2,616$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.774,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56e2…4b88backed Mavericks25c2,540$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.845253.8%28 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Rockets48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20011750.4%59 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Rockets73c2,401$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.7527247.1%128 W · 144 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Rockets1c2,305$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.468783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Rockets43c2,252$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.624752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Mavericks27c2,222$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.2246632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Rockets22c2,201$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.81,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed Rockets74c2,157$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.095848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a9…be15backed Rockets9c2,149$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002532%8 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Rockets74c2,120$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.824048.3%116 W · 124 L-13.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Rockets60c2,094$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.372,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42fd…4661backed Rockets25c2,050$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.496448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Mavericks50c2,015$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.4648845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Rockets38c2,010$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77046940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Mavericks26c2,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,48073649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Mavericks27c2,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,46038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Rockets7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14019147.6%91 W · 100 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Mavericks48c1,959$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.2913154.2%71 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Mavericks27c1,863$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.9633735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Mavericks27c1,852$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.8540041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Rockets54c1,839$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99921142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df0…6979backed Rockets75c1,663$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.251656.3%9 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick71cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x11ee…62a4backed Rockets8c1,600$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.162222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Mavericks25c1,576$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.8186641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a50ebacked Mavericks78c1,425$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.0715055.3%83 W · 67 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26aa…026cbacked Rockets50c1,391$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6909843.9%43 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0155…a6ffbacked Rockets8c1,385$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.63528.6%10 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf77…bae9backed Rockets67c1,380$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.525137.3%19 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Rockets36c1,368$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4992,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.