NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7688ceda3747797c1b54fed0c7432db596bcd97461d99e91a26b80500ae5cf33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 9,748$4,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,831.95 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 8,455$4,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,381.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 43c | 2,338$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.42 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 2,101$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 1,511$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.64 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 3c | 1,362$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Over | 57c | 1,151$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.8 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 54c | 1,098$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.92 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 54c | 1,004$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.76 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 53c | 448.97$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.95 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 55c | 293$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.15 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…15a8backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 53c | 192$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 47c | 168$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 47c | 156$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 47c | 144$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 47c | 144$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 47c | 144$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 47c | 137$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 48c | 132$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…da58backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Over | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 258 | 46.9%121 W · 137 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 46c | 81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 42c | 61.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 55c | 60.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 43c | 59.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…d9f0backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 34.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb134…b496backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5876…9c9fbacked Under | 55c | 26.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…b99abacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9b…c789backed Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…53bcbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Rockets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.