AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bdf398464f6ab3c974eaf70a1f1f0dbd63d96507a2605f7e7cf9bbbbd78bbc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bfb…9109backed Yes | 4c | 25,688$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa68b…c4b4backed Yes | 4c | 12,037$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 3c | 3,510$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf24e…8d7ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,169$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,143$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a18…d6f8backed Yes | 32c | 3,049$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f5…bc16backed Yes | 10c | 2,857$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,504$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f1…a21abacked Yes | 10c | 2,368$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9645…69f6backed Yes | 10c | 2,084$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…a7d1backed Yes | 10c | 2,075$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 2c | 2,030$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,913$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 6c | 1,612$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…ab29backed Yes | 6c | 1,547$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 4c | 1,353$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 10c | 1,213$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 8c | 1,207$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…3e44backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 989.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 3c | 913.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…12dfbacked Yes | 3c | 913.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 2c | 865.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 3c | 850.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 2c | 841.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x788c…06f6backed Yes | 11c | 839$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 6c | 699.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 4c | 690.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 60c | 687.37$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.81 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 2c | 677.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 630.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…40d7backed Yes | 2c | 622.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 562.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 36c | 551.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 78c | 522.04$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed No | 69c | 444.61$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 429.69$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…602cbacked Yes | 33c | 403.38$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0e…6348backed Yes | 10c | 399.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 292.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 17c | 199.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 198.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a3…3150backed Yes | 10c | 167.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d5…070cbacked Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb315…92e1backed Yes | 13c | 101.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +605.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…dd4ebacked Yes | 20c | 101.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 21c | 81.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 47.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…444bbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 62c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9483…ed38backed No | 74c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 78c | 17.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafc…4c71backed No | 80c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…537abacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes won
- Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.