AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x406636e7a09039520dd75f69339f88422e8218bcd1065af6967df8b791124e9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 10,519$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 4c | 8,692$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.76 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b40…e5f8backed Yes | 5c | 3,875$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 3,773$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…05febacked Yes | 4c | 2,998$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf157…9468backed Yes | 3c | 2,991$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a73…2d4cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,748$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…2b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,629$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…a507backed Yes | 4c | 2,582$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…02d1backed Yes | 3c | 2,494$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…2e30backed Yes | 4c | 2,439$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159b…b74ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,390$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x728e…0899backed Yes | 3c | 2,313$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…d2a0backed Yes | 4c | 2,247$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e0…55bbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,198$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…b984backed Yes | 5c | 2,091$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…9f49backed Yes | 4c | 2,083$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…3f13backed Yes | 4c | 1,991$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…3a94backed Yes | 4c | 1,984$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…6926backed Yes | 4c | 1,982$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…ed9abacked Yes | 4c | 1,892$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7533…e31dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,865$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…a796backed Yes | 4c | 1,852$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5991…7760backed Yes | 3c | 1,797$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf09…6be1backed Yes | 8c | 1,790$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a4…c36ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,552$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1a…9053backed Yes | 4c | 1,538$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3315…9313backed Yes | 4c | 1,510$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,487$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7049…4addbacked Yes | 3c | 1,476$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…f507backed Yes | 4c | 1,437$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…0467backed Yes | 4c | 1,417$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…0603backed Yes | 4c | 1,399$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…e575backed Yes | 4c | 1,384$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…40fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,380$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…28c4backed Yes | 4c | 1,374$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 3c | 1,346$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,325$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…6c4bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,267$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 1,061$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…f8b3backed Yes | 1c | 983.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3661…61debacked Yes | 3c | 921$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe1…37d9backed Yes | 3c | 870$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…4f07backed Yes | 3c | 775$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 740.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4421…3bb4backed Yes | 3c | 727$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…cf78backed Yes | 4c | 720$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 687.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…0d4abacked Yes | 3c | 679$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd449…8638backed Yes | 3c | 673$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…6e7bbacked Yes | 3c | 653$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…25adbacked Yes | 4c | 623$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 6c | 606.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…fd6cbacked Yes | 3c | 603$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…3dcebacked Yes | 4c | 597$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 3c | 592.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…1663backed Yes | 3c | 578$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…d381backed Yes | 3c | 517$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 3c | 456.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c6…39c7backed Yes | 4c | 455$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…6096backed Yes | 3c | 434$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c72…65c9backed Yes | 5c | 392$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 256.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 243.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 231.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 217.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes won
- Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.