TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$460,914
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$352,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,914 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x842b…b366backed Yes4c80,766$3,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,327.663710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-82.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c37,392$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.282560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes2c6,500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1406216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c6,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.016291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes4c3,701$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.682560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…cc57backed Yes7c3,573$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7160…981bbacked Yes2c3,441$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a6…3318backed Yes2c3,250$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x141f…6705backed Yes7c3,209$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes4c2,938$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9147938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b5e…50b4backed Yes3c2,829$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbba6…2d95backed Yes2c2,718$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x837e…7696backed Yes3c2,686$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309b…8f73backed Yes2c2,359$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c2,175$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.762522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e0a…0ce3backed Yes7c2,078$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…d7cabacked Yes2c2,008$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes5c2,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.085225%13 W · 39 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf9a…281bbacked Yes3c1,979$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc769…8eeebacked Yes2c1,894$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes7c1,842$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0911720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fa…696cbacked Yes2c1,786$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes5c1,756$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8718311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x086f…34d8backed Yes2c1,708$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1898…f7ecbacked Yes3c1,674$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d56…44fcbacked Yes2c1,658$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde25…9f49backed Yes2c1,655$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06e…412abacked Yes2c1,651$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad93…3eacbacked Yes2c1,627$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72cb…2cdfbacked Yes3c1,612$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c01…dce1backed Yes1c1,605$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a52…eac9backed Yes2c1,599$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9330…f692backed Yes2c1,578$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,551$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.341,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf63…88e2backed Yes1c1,547$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x693b…a6a6backed Yes2c1,525$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x923c…67afbacked Yes2c1,486$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7908…af07backed Yes7c1,451$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf1b…bd61backed Yes7c1,413$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe4…a796backed Yes7c1,331$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0abc…a153backed Yes2c1,299$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes4c1,247$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.92220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes6c1,213$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.18590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x294e…fc93backed Yes2c1,189$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5462…0783backed Yes2c1,184$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7536…6faabacked Yes3c1,177$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa6…8cb2backed Yes2c1,172$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215c…f0b6backed Yes2c1,122$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes1c1,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aff…3ebdbacked Yes2c1,100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e10…50d8backed Yes2c1,065$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes3c1,014$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7796.3%5 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x610f…f2b2backed Yes2c1,010$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2baa…a8c6backed Yes2c983$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b5…28b4backed Yes2c909$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc10…f1a5backed Yes2c880$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c858.68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.78486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1204…83f6backed Yes3c856$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900b…f507backed Yes2c767$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0199…4e86backed Yes5c755.74$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7490…5af4backed Yes2c745$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96f0…820bbacked Yes10c657$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes6c631.66$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.53382.6%1 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick10cpaid-94.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fba…5048backed Yes3c613$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8119818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e49…63febacked Yes9c591$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes4c532$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.76731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes4c526.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.231754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe431…0444backed Yes9c512$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c470.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8957426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9889…e575backed Yes10c456$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa34…d381backed Yes2c417$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…79f7backed Yes4c402.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-68.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes6c387.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.791625%4 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03bd…b422backed Yes6c322$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes4c313.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.612114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-74.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes7c301.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1413422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes4c280.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.217035.7%25 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+71.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes4c279.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22330%0 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes7c256.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.035756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c241.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.842977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cd5…4d46backed Yes7c157$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0c6ebacked Yes10c123$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.